FWIW i never replaced the 3g box in my 2018 subaru, and never have a battery drain issue. the battery did fail about 4 years in to owning the car, but it was a cell failure not a drain issue.
Also makes me wonder - what if someone has a subaru and lives out in a very remote area where there is no 3G or 4G service? Would that not have the same issue as the cell towers being deprecated for 3G? Seems like (specifically for Subaru owners) this might be a more common type of living situation than other car owners too!