The reality is that the Chinese population is in crisis, solely and directly due to their societal position of less than replacement reproduction as law, and the consequences of that position over time.
2 ppl = 1 person + repeat x number of times per generation + time, decades of time even... uuhh, how could that not have serious detrimental effects to the replacement rate?
We won't see it right away obviously, like with Japan it's taken time to begin to see what it will really look like to have a population age out, but tho long ago predicted, the prediction is still playing out.
Population trends are not supposed to move like China's did - had it naturally occured, their would have naturally been an increase too offset, these things happen for reasons.
There MUST always be more of us.
The world over also knows that Japan is a pretty serious culture, they are like the Germany of Asia and the Koreans and Chinese are pretty serious too. They have several words to define foreigner based on their level of how bad they are or decent...
It's one of the most expensive places in the world, Japanese is also hard and they have a stubborn attachment to using it even for titles of things... I'd not have it easy in Japan.
I'd pick Japan. Every. single. time.
Not all closed to immigrant societies can actually do an about face. That's just reality.
I'd pick
Also, I don't think you realize how much Japanese have hatred towards foreigners. I will go as far as saying Chinese and Americans have more in common than Japanese and Americans.
Anyways, my whole point was clowning a huge economy because of its political ideology is only valid when they keep losing. Right now? It's the opposite. Time will show, I guess.
1.3 Billion people will be less than 700 Million - younger ppl alive today will live to see this transpire. Understanding this is key to getting why Taiwan is so important to be taken this generation.
As a previous comment stated - they have 15 years before they begin to decline and at first the decline will be slow but at some point the majority of people will be so Old that they require care, like assisted living... but they will be the majority of people without the children and grandchildren necessary to replace them, the country's population is projected to be at around half of it current number by 2100.
I can't state enough that reversing such decline is extremely difficult. Now that "we all know" any moves to increase immigration will almost look a denial of reality.
Like I said, I believe that the CCP may have broken their society with that policy - as it seems to be a factual statement that cannot be denied.
I have never looked down on Chinese people. But their nation has essentially self destructed multiple times over the past several centuries so I won't be surprised if it happens again. When heading over a cliff, political ideology can cause even smart people to keep going straight ahead instead of turning the wheel.
Have you actually looked at those immigration reforms? Japan is making some very limited changes to try and attract a small number of skilled workers. Those people already have options about where to go and Japan is not at the top of anyone's list (a tiny number of Japanophiles excepted). Japan is not opening their borders to take in masses of random poor people to repopulate the country.
https://hir.harvard.edu/improved-immigration-japan/
This is not a serious change of government policy or human nature. Maybe in a decade they'll be desperate enough to make real reforms.
Yes, Japan has been making it much easier to immigrate in the recent years, you can ask anyone who lives here, especially recent immigrants. Government has been carving out special exclusions (like truck drivers) when the large businesses can't attract workers.
I don't really think failing societies will do what is necessary to reverse the trends - the opposite actually. With decline comes uncertainty and fear and so those that people that remain will entrench themselves and try to prevent "outsiders" from taking advantage of their own population decline.
Like, say if China ends up half of its current housing available in 70 years - opening up to foreigners, really anyone, to buy them and immigrate on the cheap would be smart... but that would mean a society that has just experienced an incredible trauma then turns around to watch half of their world be taken over be optimistic, eager, productive 1st generation immigrants - it is unlikely Han Chinese 3000+ year old culture emerges from such an experience without much change... I'm not sure that would be acceptable to some countries.
I think a lot of places will go down with the ship so to say, or at least want to. I've no doubt half empty county's will attract attention.
Look at what has been done to actual Chinese people, but minorities tho - the Uhgyurs - all bc they are not Han Chinese, the very population group that made China rich but without heirs, they have allegedly used forced sterilizations as policy... little unbelievable considering.
How would they treat a desperate refugee or a poor immigrant family?
I was astounded when I finally could see the enormity of what I was looking at, absolutely dumbfounded. I have no idea how things were allowed to progress so far or even how it was so flippantly considered outright but it seems very much like all the data and statistics and trends and science of populations over time suggests that China broke their society with that policy, in a way that may not be fixable - as the entire world is also grappling with this replacing issue, just not so badly...
History is crazy. That was a crazy bad idea it turns out.
Who wants to move to China? China has less than .01% of its population comprised of immigrants. They do not treat immigrants all that well. Mandarin is hard and very little English is spoken outside of the Entertainment and Academic circles.
Immigrating to China versus immigrating to the US...
Especially considering China is recruiting you to hopefully help them stave off economic and societal ruin...
But... what If you actually can get a Green Card into the US tho and actually immigrate and become a citizen to work at a stable position at say a Tech Company with high income, good work life balance.
Would something like that be appealing to a slice of the Global Population?? They can be from anywhere but they gotta kno coding, or AI or be an Engineer - this is the new "Give me your tired, hungry and poor"
Now the US will increasingly only take the best and brightest but any and all of them.
Anyways, my point is, when governments become desperate, they will change their laws, needs and wants. It has been done before, and will be done in the future.