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Comment by NemoNobody | Hacker News Reader

The US is the unparalleled economy and unlike it's only economic contender, the US has future growth projected out as far as the turn of the century - China has a near economic apocalypse projected for its country by the turn of the century. That's really not that far away.

What leads you to believe the US wont continue to ourselves everyone whenever it deems want or reason? Historically that has been the case.

China's future has drawn attention to the sand upon which the foundation of their economic growth sits.

So. Who will outspend the single country that accounts for 25.32% of all global economic activity?? Who is going to do that??

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There’ve been two new generations of kids that have been born since the “China is doomed” headlines have dominated the news. At some point, maybe, everyone should take them a bit more seriously? If one calls current US administrations methods “course correcting”, the same person should assume that another giant can do the same.

I still remember Russia going to default 2 months into the war… western media is… like media everywhere else

The propaganda is so effective in the west, we really believe the news is news.

No. I'm afraid that this comment demonstrates that you have not researched this topic and are making baseless statements.

The reality is that the Chinese population is in crisis, solely and directly due to their societal position of less than replacement reproduction as law, and the consequences of that position over time.

2 ppl = 1 person + repeat x number of times per generation + time, decades of time even... uuhh, how could that not have serious detrimental effects to the replacement rate?

We won't see it right away obviously, like with Japan it's taken time to begin to see what it will really look like to have a population age out, but tho long ago predicted, the prediction is still playing out.

Population trends are not supposed to move like China's did - had it naturally occured, their would have naturally been an increase too offset, these things happen for reasons.

There MUST always be more of us.

Population problems won't hit them for the next 15 years or so. That's enough time to figure out an immigration solution if nothing else comes up. Just like literally any developed country does, as nobody has positive fertility rates. It's not like no government is aware of their issues, that's the reason why Japan is increasing their immigration targets every year. Despite all the calamity about immigration in the US, they will also keep being immigration friendly for these reason. These problems exist everywhere.

Immigration from where? China might allow in a few immigrants from neighboring countries with bad economies but the notion that they would take millions of poor people from South Asia, Middle East, Africa, and Central/South America is just ludicrous. The level of xenophobia and racism in China makes that a non-starter regardless of the consequences. And the scale of their demographic time bomb that will explode in 15-20 years is enormous.

s/China/Japan/. You could say the same thing, yet they're rolling ahead with immigration reforms. Really underestimating how fast the human nature can change when you're desperate.

Yeah... one of the is not like the other tho. Seriously, Japan was the 2nd largest Economy for a long time but far more importantly, Japanese culture is one of the most powerful in the world - everyone under a certain knows who Goku is, Luffy is beloved world over and we all know what it means to run like Naruto.

The world over also knows that Japan is a pretty serious culture, they are like the Germany of Asia and the Koreans and Chinese are pretty serious too. They have several words to define foreigner based on their level of how bad they are or decent...

It's one of the most expensive places in the world, Japanese is also hard and they have a stubborn attachment to using it even for titles of things... I'd not have it easy in Japan.

I'd pick Japan. Every. single. time.

Not all closed to immigrant societies can actually do an about face. That's just reality.

I'd pick

And China... is number 2 right now? There are 1.4B of them. Literally more people than entire continental Europe, North America and Japan combined. I just don't get the idea of looking down on them, when for the past 15 years they've been on a roll. Sure they have problems, but so does every country.

Also, I don't think you realize how much Japanese have hatred towards foreigners. I will go as far as saying Chinese and Americans have more in common than Japanese and Americans.

Anyways, my whole point was clowning a huge economy because of its political ideology is only valid when they keep losing. Right now? It's the opposite. Time will show, I guess.

I almost posted a link here but I think you ought to research the claims that you are making, all of your own volition, bc I think you need to see for yourself - search many sources, you will see.

1.3 Billion people will be less than 700 Million - younger ppl alive today will live to see this transpire. Understanding this is key to getting why Taiwan is so important to be taken this generation.

As a previous comment stated - they have 15 years before they begin to decline and at first the decline will be slow but at some point the majority of people will be so Old that they require care, like assisted living... but they will be the majority of people without the children and grandchildren necessary to replace them, the country's population is projected to be at around half of it current number by 2100.

I can't state enough that reversing such decline is extremely difficult. Now that "we all know" any moves to increase immigration will almost look a denial of reality.

Like I said, I believe that the CCP may have broken their society with that policy - as it seems to be a factual statement that cannot be denied.

Well 1.4B is the official number, but is it accurate? When have Communists ever been truthful about important issues? China has childhood immunization coverage near 100% (which is an impressive accomplishment by itself), but independent analysis of the number of vaccine doses ordered shows that the actual population could be closer to 1.2B. The reality is that the Chinese government treats the raw data as a state secret and won't provide any access to independent researchers so no one knows for sure.

I have never looked down on Chinese people. But their nation has essentially self destructed multiple times over the past several centuries so I won't be surprised if it happens again. When heading over a cliff, political ideology can cause even smart people to keep going straight ahead instead of turning the wheel.

I do say the same thing about Japan (and South Korea). They have similar demographic problems similar to China, just on much smaller scales.

Have you actually looked at those immigration reforms? Japan is making some very limited changes to try and attract a small number of skilled workers. Those people already have options about where to go and Japan is not at the top of anyone's list (a tiny number of Japanophiles excepted). Japan is not opening their borders to take in masses of random poor people to repopulate the country.

https://hir.harvard.edu/improved-immigration-japan/

This is not a serious change of government policy or human nature. Maybe in a decade they'll be desperate enough to make real reforms.

You'll see way more non-locals working in konbinis than ever before. If you talk to locals outside of the major metro areas, they're kinda upset, but from what I've gathered, they started to accept the reality somewhat.

Yes, Japan has been making it much easier to immigrate in the recent years, you can ask anyone who lives here, especially recent immigrants. Government has been carving out special exclusions (like truck drivers) when the large businesses can't attract workers.

Japan is the leader of robotics technology for a reason - a lot of eggs are going into that basket.

I don't really think failing societies will do what is necessary to reverse the trends - the opposite actually. With decline comes uncertainty and fear and so those that people that remain will entrench themselves and try to prevent "outsiders" from taking advantage of their own population decline.

Like, say if China ends up half of its current housing available in 70 years - opening up to foreigners, really anyone, to buy them and immigrate on the cheap would be smart... but that would mean a society that has just experienced an incredible trauma then turns around to watch half of their world be taken over be optimistic, eager, productive 1st generation immigrants - it is unlikely Han Chinese 3000+ year old culture emerges from such an experience without much change... I'm not sure that would be acceptable to some countries.

I think a lot of places will go down with the ship so to say, or at least want to. I've no doubt half empty county's will attract attention.

This. I very much appreciate Chinese culture and civilization - so much of it is so very impressive but having a 3000+ continuous history makes it rather easier to see and understand certain things. Chinese self certain superiority to all other all cultures and peoples is consistently sustained in practice and in policy as their outspoken Diplomacy for millennia.

Look at what has been done to actual Chinese people, but minorities tho - the Uhgyurs - all bc they are not Han Chinese, the very population group that made China rich but without heirs, they have allegedly used forced sterilizations as policy... little unbelievable considering.

How would they treat a desperate refugee or a poor immigrant family?

I got lost trying to spell out how much I don't think immigration can save China - forgot to agree with the very end of your comment...

I was astounded when I finally could see the enormity of what I was looking at, absolutely dumbfounded. I have no idea how things were allowed to progress so far or even how it was so flippantly considered outright but it seems very much like all the data and statistics and trends and science of populations over time suggests that China broke their society with that policy, in a way that may not be fixable - as the entire world is also grappling with this replacing issue, just not so badly...

History is crazy. That was a crazy bad idea it turns out.

Why is it impossible for China yet possible to do just this in the middle east? Same xenophobia to boot.

Haha, that's like saying a Military Boarding School for Troubled Teens will solve its Baseball Team Player shortage with a newspaper ad.

Who wants to move to China? China has less than .01% of its population comprised of immigrants. They do not treat immigrants all that well. Mandarin is hard and very little English is spoken outside of the Entertainment and Academic circles.

Immigrating to China versus immigrating to the US...

Especially considering China is recruiting you to hopefully help them stave off economic and societal ruin...

Well, people work in the persian gulf despite the issues with that. If there is work to be done in china and an avenue for low skilled laborers to get there, that’s where they will go as simple as that. If you haven’t noticed the change in the wind over the past week, its not exactly looking great to bank on coming to the US looking for work.

I understand.

But... what If you actually can get a Green Card into the US tho and actually immigrate and become a citizen to work at a stable position at say a Tech Company with high income, good work life balance.

Would something like that be appealing to a slice of the Global Population?? They can be from anywhere but they gotta kno coding, or AI or be an Engineer - this is the new "Give me your tired, hungry and poor"

Now the US will increasingly only take the best and brightest but any and all of them.

Best and brightest don’t contribute to raw numbers. Also, even US issues more low-skilled visas than high skilled visas. Number of H-2A/B visas issues per year is like the double of H-1B. Former doesn’t have a pathway to permanent residency though.

Anyways, my point is, when governments become desperate, they will change their laws, needs and wants. It has been done before, and will be done in the future.

I don’t think the people building skyscrapers in the middle east and the people hoping for h1b in a tech company are the same sort of people at all in this case. Consider also how China has been making literal inroads into Africa the past few decades. There is a pool of low skilled labor that wouldn’t mind a little higher pay and a lot more stability and security to go along with that. There are still warlords destabilizing nations in this part of the world. Plenty want out.

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