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Comment by nostrademons | Hacker News Reader

A number of headlines have come out recently touting China's progress on electrification, and predicting that they will soon (if they don't already) dominate the solar/battery/EV markets.

The part often glossed over is that while the U.S. and Russia both have large oil reserves and domestic production capabilities, China has virtually nothing in comparison. Their production is about 1/4 that of the U.S. despite having 4x the population, meaning that per capita, they have < 1/16th the oil available. Electrification is a matter of national security for them, because any major global geopolitical conflict (say, the escalation of the Russia/Ukraine war, or a Russia/US conflict, or more turmoil in the Middle East) will cut off the flow of oil imports and grind China's already-weakened economy to a halt.

Follow the incentives and you can predict the outcomes.

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> The part often glossed over is that while the U.S. and Russia both have large oil reserves and domestic production capabilities, China has virtually nothing in comparison.

China is 13th of the list with an estimated 25.1 billion barrels of untapped oil reserves.

The U.S. is 9th in the list with 55 billion barrels. Venezuela tops the list with and estimated 303 billion barrels.

China also has a long term strategic policy on resource management. Long term strategic planning is deep within Chinese cultural psyche.

Wondering around certain regions of China you’ll see many capped wells, and when you ask a Chinese official about them, one may be lucky to get the real answer as to why they are capped and not being used.

The answer given was “why use ours now? We use everyone else’s until it’s all gone, and then we use ours”.

China is playing the long game. It’s a slow patient 2000 year old culture that had an odd blip 100 years ago and is now moving back to business as usual. Underestimate China at your peril.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_...

> The answer given was “why use ours now? We use everyone else’s until it’s all gone, and then we use ours”.

I think that's the lie, not the real answer.

I don't know about China, but an unused oil well fills with sand very quick in most regions. Production can't be restarted after that. A new well is needed.

That doesn't mean they can't abandon an oil well that still have oil with the intention of digging another one later, it's just very expensive to do it.

Not saying I agree that this is an actual Chinese strategy, but the idea is that, for now, they just don't drill production wells that pull from these reserves, not that they stop producing from existing wells.

Those are reserves that are economically recoverable at current prices. The U.S. has absolutely enormous deposits of shale oil that can be (and are, right now) mined with current technology, they are just more expensive than liquid oil and so generally not economically worth it at current prices. In the event of a major geopolitical conflict that sends the price of oil skyrocketing, you can bet that the U.S. is going to tap its estimated 2.175 trillion barrels of shale oil reserves.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_the_United_Sta...

> The answer given was “why use ours now? We use everyone else’s until it’s all gone, and then we use ours”.

I can not say it's true or not

I can say, when we(Chinese) are children, there's a saying that Japan was storing oil and coal on the seabed near its coast, and the reason:

“why use ours now? We use everyone else’s until it’s all gone, and then we use ours”

China has the 2nd largest coal reserve globally. They also produce 61% of their electricity from Coal-fired power plants.

Say what you will about contributing to increasing global greenhouse gas emissions but their energy security is not as dire as you paint it. They're still diversifying it though through hydro/nuclear/wind/solar sources.

Losing gasoline would absolutely suck for them, though. They have a commuter economy like all the other developed economies; if people can't go to work, the economy ceases to function. Hence the strong push toward EVs.

China has abundant coal, abundant hydro, lots of solar potential (although I think their installed base is just getting started), and decent wind. It makes a lot of sense for them to electrify their economy so that they can transform those coal and hydro resources to something you can drive around.

You can make gasoline out of coal. That was in fact Hitler's backup plan for WWII, in case he failed to secure the oil fields he needed.

Only 20% of China's energy consumption is in the form of electricity. The rest is transport, heating and cooking. They do use some coal for heating & cooking but it's fairly negligible. Therefore coal only supplies about 13% of energy.

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