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Comment by gunian | Hacker News Reader

wonder what geopolitical dynamic is at play

are there any nations that are rivals or allies with Poland the US is thinking about

I think the USA just wants to keep Europe militarily and economically weak. Poland’s military is soon to be the strongest in Europe (if it isn’t already).

I think Europe, NATO notwithstanding, needs to realise the USA isn’t a wholly reliable ally, especially under Trump.

It doesnt necessarily want weak, but it does want to prioritize its own military requirements and it does want European dependence on the US.

Controls like these look like they are designed to be repealed if Europe does as it is told and increases defence spending to 5% of gdp (presumably by spending more on other American weapons).

Brzezinski wrote about US not wanting an integrated Eurasia (the heartland), so that Europe can be more dependant on the US. Germany used to have more integration which make its industry thrive because it can take advantage of Russia's cheap energy and China's industrial goods for its industry. Ukraine war completely changed that, which marks the first time since World War II that Germany has faced two consecutive years of economic decline.

That argument would make more sense if they did not include Poland, the biggest per capita spender and a staunch US ally.

They're still not even close to 5%.

The US doesnt treat any of its puppets particularly well. America treats its European allies a bit like Moscow treats its Belarussian ally. With the new administration that is becoming clearer than ever.

Calling Poland an American puppet state is a stretch (basically incorrect).

While the US can exert a lot of influence, Poland (and others) are not puppet states-- there is no direct US control over government/elections, no dependence on the US for those governments and no US control over polish law.

Being a weaker member of an alliance does not make you a puppet.

There's probably a lot more influence deeper within EU institutions than you realize. What happened in Romania (election cancelled "because tiktok") is also reflection of American tendrils.

Could you elaborate on these tendrils (?) - I haven't looked at the Romanian situation from that vantage point.

Poland is aiming for 4.7% in 2025 and is supporting Trumps proposal for 5% for NATO.

Meanwhile Italy is allowed to buy chips with 1.5% defense spending.

It doesn't make sense to think that defense spending is the criterion used to select the countries.

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