What about Austin, where they have aggressively upzoned and built, and now housing prices are down?
But it turned out that my prediction was correct because the Austin population went _down_ during the pandemic.
Population:
2019 - 978,763
2022 - 975,418
2023 - 979,882
The overall Travis County population went up a bit. And the prices, in the places other than Austin, are also up.
I can also give a prediction, if Austin population growth recovers (not a given), the price growth rate will quickly outpace the surrounding Travis County.
In every comparable city in the country, housing prices are up. In Austin, they are down.
Now compare the population. Travis County population (sans Austin) went up, so the prices are also up. And Travis County actually has _more_ new units than Austin proper.
The driver for the price decreases in Austin is the population drop, not the new construction.
If your point is, "construction has to outstrip population increase in order to decrease prices", then well, yeah, we agree fully.
If your point is that huge amounts of new units going on the market in Austin does not have a significant impact on prices, I don't think that's supported by any evidence or makes any sense.