Conversely, if you know Santa's Little Helper is going to win the 6th race and told everyone, that would drive DOWN the odds and your potential payout. You'd have to have insider knowledge, then fabricate and disseminate a lie so that the actual winner gets bid down to 99:1 least-favourite before the race.
So the incentive model is different. In a way, in the stock market, being seen as a psychic genius can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. $FOOBAR doubled in price because people chased your prediction, not due to fundamentals.
It's much simpler than that. Although the show appears in the beginning like it's a "magic trick" (though that is never actually claimed), in the end the audience is clearly shown how there's no trick at all. It's all simple probability and there really is no way to "beat the odds". Which IMHO is ultimately more entertaining and valuable than just some slight of hand or magic trickery.
Anyway, I apologize for my error in recollection. I sincerely remember the gist of the show being as I described. Another reminder that memory can sometimes be weirdly porous yet not be correctly 'flagged' with an appropriate sense of uncertainty.
It's not really revealed how he does the last trick. In the last bet she believes she loses because the horse he tips doesn't win - and during the race he reveals there is no system.
However, he places the final bet - not her - and after the race ends she opens the ticket to find it's placed on the winner, not the tipped horse.
Almost certainly it's slight of hand (which he is excellent at) but that is never revealed.
Anyway, I apologize for my error in recollection. I sincerely remember the gist of the show being as I described. Another reminder that memory can sometimes be weirdly porous yet not be correctly 'flagged' with an appropriate sense of uncertainty.
https://www.minder.org/episodeguide/S04E04_SorryPalWrongNumb...
It really stuck in my head for some reason, but never been able to figure out what show/movie it was.