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Comment by brnt | Hacker News Reader

If I plot a line between Azerbaijan and Grozny, even if I go around the Caucasus over the Caspian, crashing in Kazakhstan seems way, way off.

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It diverted to Aktau after getting hit (by birds allegedly, but really - SAM). All other flights got diverted to Aktau too on that day.

Why that far? It's at least twice further from either beginning or destination than those are apart themselves.

If it got hit over Makhachkala it’s closer to Aktau - just over the Caspian. Maybe it’s easier to land there with busted controls too

Seems like the plane was barely controllable. That may have just been the direction they were able to maintain.

If the pilots were aware that they had been hit by anti-aircraft defenses, and that they were in at least partial control of the aircraft, they might have concluded they were better off getting as far away as possible, just in case the AA operators try again.

So it crashed into the sea leaving no evidence or live witnesses.

There are reports of GPS jamming in the area (presumably as part of the Ukraine war). It seems plausible the pilots got lost.

Also, the time between the 'bird strike' and the crash is 20+ minutes, so they might have been trying to fly towards an airport with a larger runway or better emergency crews. Or maybe just an airport where repair crew were stationed to fix whatever was wrong with the plane.

Doubtful. The Caspian Sea is a pretty unmistakeable landmark, even from high altitude, which the pilots would have seen.

I think it was more likely that that happened to be the direction the plane was pointing when it got hit by the missile and lost control surfaces, so that is where the pilots went.

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