Air missile accident emerges as probable cause of Azerbaijan E190tragedy
euronews.com
euronews.com
The question is, who shot the plane? This part is pure speculation at this point.
Some view the denying of emergency landing clearance as an effort to destroy/obscure evidence: https://x.com/DailyTurkic/status/1872008574878298418
Itavia 870 comes to mind: In the 80ies, a fighter jet was being smuggled to Gaddafi by hiding under a civilian aircraft, and the speculation is that France shot the convoy, killing 81. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Itavia_Flight_870
Russia/USSR does seem overrepresented here.
Do you have any sources for that? The article you link does not seem to mention that theory.
Sure the article mention a theory that Gaddafi was in a fighter jet, and the civilian plane was a collateral damage from a dogfight, but given the lack of information in the public space, both theories still have a lot of common points.
It doesn't seem to be too difficult to put together what is likely. Grozny was under active drone attack at the time with air defenses working. And Russian air defense crews are pretty infamous for the jumpy trigger fingers at this point.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/02/ukraine-pac...
This is the Russia war coming home to roost. They better admit that they are engaged in an actual war, and stop allowing civilian aircraft in areas that are attacked frequently.
ADS-B is an augmentation of that, which makes receivers simpler, but ATC generally does not rely on it exclusively (except in some very remote regions), nor on any type of active/cooperative signal or response – if everything else fails (maliciously or accidentally), there's usually primary radar as well.
And remember, radars vary groundspeed, which can easily vary by +/- 25MPH from actual (and will be reading the Embraer's speed on the low side).
The transponder code, assigned by various ATC would identify that aircraft as a civilian airliner when it checks in, and on the screens of the SAM operators.
Also, the speed and altitude of the airliner, even approaching Grozny would not be the same as a drone. Airliners, even on approach, are somewhat faster, probably 200-250mph, or faster, and much higher in altitude, at least 5000ft, probably more like 10,000ft until close to the airport.
More importantly, it's not uncommon when crossing Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCC) regions (eg. from Washington Center, to NY Center) for controllers to instruct pilots to change Squawk codes. Same applies when crossing from one country's airspace to another.
One of these drones, without a bunch of extra avionics would be unable to change transponder codes in flight, and talk with controllers via relay, that would probably double the cost of the drone, or at least significantly increase it.
So even doing something creative, like spoofing the transponder Squawk code, from another aircraft, probably wouldn't help.
Also, with Mode-C, and Mode-S transponders, the later used with ADS-B, which feeds all the flight tracking websites, the transponder transmits altitude.
A SAM operator will figure out somewhat quickly if an airliner is supposed to be at 10,000ft and 250mph but isn't according to primary radar tracking, but much lower and slower, that it's spoofing it's transponder.
Likewise, it didn't look like it was on a glide path, but rather that as discussed the hydraulics failed and they has to use thrust vectoring to fly. Obviously for very fine correction on final approach that becomes difficult, and the result was what we saw. All of that is consistent with a missile.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J04wUKZUCI&pp=ygULYmxhbmNvb...
I'm from the area, near Grozny. If Grozny were under fog, there are at least 10 airports nearby (Makhachkala, Vladikavkaz, Nalchik, Minvody, Rostov, Krasnodar etc) in the North Caucasus. Why would you fly east, across the Caspian Sea, toward Kazakhstan?
But from what I'm seeing the actual answer is that they were denied landing clearance, which is a bit suspicious.
And, to further that point, multiple airports you listed here are currently closed because of that war.
says media in Azerbaijan now as per https://report.az/en/incident/crashed-azal-plane-shot-down-b...
There you go.
My guess, they picked an airport they knew well, that they could probably navigate to with nothing more than a compass and landmarks. And if they suspected GPS jamming (personally, a dual GPS failure over Russia would be my first guess) they would be biased towards an airport far away from an active war zone.
I am curious why they didn't divert back to their departure airport at Baku. It's roughly the same distance and surely they knew that airport even better, and could just follow the coastline back. Maybe by the time they had the plane under control they were already much closer to Aktau.
https://bsky.app/profile/dandrezner.bsky.social/post/3le7jr7...
"Kill and hide. Azerbaijani officials tell local media that Russia hit flight J2-8243 with an anti-aircraft missile and then jammed electronics and _denied permission to land in three airports, steering the damaged plane into the Caspian Sea so that it would crash there and Russia’s role would never be discovered_."
> At least, the holes in the tail section look like traces of the striking elements of an anti-aircraft missile.
> Surviving passenger of the plane Subhonkul Rakhimov said that the pilots tried to land the plane in Grozny three times: "The third time, something exploded. There was an explosion - I seemed to me that it was not inside the plane."
https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1hm0ijm/another_a...
There are videos filmed from within the cabin by the passengers showing shrapnel piercing clothing, limbs, seats, and more before the plane crashes.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1871952188383309872 (Holes in life vests)
https://www.reddit.com/r/world24x7hr/comments/1hm6prb/seats_... (Shrapnel damage)
https://www.reddit.com/r/TerrifyingAsFuck/comments/1hm4mf0/f... (Survivor before the plane crashes.)
(There are better videos, but I can't seem to find them again.)
There are reports that the plane was forced to divert course and fly over water after being hit. They were close to landing but were forced to reroute in the middle of their emergency.
More videos:
https://www.reddit.com/r/TerrifyingAsFuck/comments/1hlx7tc/c... (Crash. Other videos from other angles exist elsewhere online.)
https://www.reddit.com/r/world24x7hr/comments/1hm2ynv/shocki... (Tail section after crash)
https://www.reddit.com/r/ThatsInsane/comments/1hlxm7i/surviv... (Survivors exiting the tail section)
https://www.reddit.com/r/world24x7hr/comments/1hm7poq/miracl... (Survivor who filmed prior to the crash.)
I'll edit my comment with sources shortly.
The pieces would tear through the plane like shrapnel from a weapon.
Military anti air missiles tend to use continuous rods to slice planes in half instead of fragmentation warheads that leave small holes. The aim is to sever control lines, not merely to puncture.
https://a.dropoverapp.com/cloud/download/8a578eea-0de8-4504-...
Unconfined engine failures do the fuselage damage in the proximity of the engine: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187775032...
https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1hm0nf7/an_il22_t...
For example, see the SAMS section here: https://www.gichd.org/fileadmin/uploads/gichd/Publications/G...
Not in any passenger jet Embraer would get caught dead making. To my knowledge, most jet engines that are parallel to passenger sections require cowling that is reinforced to withstand a blade going loose.
It was either murder or manslaughter by negligence.
The same is true for this incident.
Not as scheduled. The aircraft was diverted because of unacceptable weather at its primary destination -- https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjwl1e6895qo : "The plane was en route to Grozny in Russia but it was diverted due to fog, the airline told the BBC."
Just saying, not excusing a hostile takedown, if that's what happened.
Diversion due to weather is a possibility anticipated by pilots, who normally carry extra fuel to accommodate the possibility of a diversion.
Ironically, because of the advent of drone attacks, a small aircraft like the Embraer 190 is more likely to be mistaken for hostile, compared to a full-size airliner.
> Ironically, because of the advent of drone attacks, a small aircraft like the Embraer 190 is more likely to be mistaken for hostile, compared to a full-size airliner.
From CNN today (https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/26/asia/kazakhstan-plane-crash-q...) : "Russia may have downed Azerbaijani jet after confusing it for Ukrainian drone, US official says."
Also, the time between the 'bird strike' and the crash is 20+ minutes, so they might have been trying to fly towards an airport with a larger runway or better emergency crews. Or maybe just an airport where repair crew were stationed to fix whatever was wrong with the plane.
I think it was more likely that that happened to be the direction the plane was pointing when it got hit by the missile and lost control surfaces, so that is where the pilots went.
Or Team America, child-minder?
Sending NATO troops to do their work seems strange, especially considering that we are talking about a relatively small piece of land in Eastern Ukraine. And no, Putin will not go for Lisboa if he still does not manage to occupy the whole of Donetsk.
Do you blame NATO for not recapturing North Korea?
False dichotomies like this are very questionable.
Night vision would be huge. If you've ever seen videos of soldiers with night vision engaging those without, it's slaughter. And that's exactly what we need, kill ratios of tens to one to make Russia really pay for their aggression.
If they wanna send flesh against steel, make them bleed out. And when they start conscripting in big cities, maybe those "poor" "innocent" Russians will finally do something about their government.
no guns. and that's why your benevolent overlords want to take your guns away too.
I see these snarky reddity comments all the time, and you people seriously fail to grasp the difference between authoritarian shitholes like Russia and China and your glorious liberal democracies, where your cities burn while cops stand around doing nothing because the local government is terrified of bad optics. in Russia, civil unrest gets put down with extreme prejudice.
a regime like that can only fail when even its eunuch servants and attack dogs aren't getting paid and fed. otherwise, your imaginary revolutionaries with sticks, stones and molotovs will get mowed down en masse, the survivors will get 15 years in gulag, and all without a peep from the local media.
There is a spectrum between full scale revolution / civil war and targeted assassinations. The number of guns is also a spectrum and Russia is on par with many European countries (according to Wikipedia).
Belarus has fewer guns and they were very close to overthrowing the dictator. Unfortunately, as you said, in the west, it's enough to make yourself look like a victim and the optics will often force the oppressors to cease action. Belarusians chose to imitate the west without understanding why it works. We saw reports of police officers putting down their weapons instead of turning them on the oppressors.
Shinzo Abe was killed using a completely home made shotgun. You don't wanna go to war with one of those but it's entirely sufficient for killing a single target. You will never get close enough to a high profile one but as you said, there are many servile people in the chain of command. Russia no doubt has many parents who lost their only sons and shouldn't have much to live for, yet we don't see targeted assassinations.
I've heard reports that the rebels in Myanmar started with homemade weapons and muskets and they're getting progressively better armed as they steal weapons from oppressors they kill. But they're also predominantly young and willing to act. What I see from Russia is lethargy.
I also don't know how well the serviles in Russia are getting paid, we see reports of soldiers making appeals to Putin after not getting paid (showing that they still believe in their glorious leader).
It's all very hard to judge but the best way to get neutral "apolitical" people to act is to put them between a rock and a hard place and if they still refuse to stand for good against evil, they seeing them mowed down in infrared is a good alternative for me. Better than seeing innocent people killed.
> that's why your benevolent overlords want to take your guns away too
And this is a very worrying trend. What is more sinister is the tabooization of violence. Ultimately all real power comes from violence (usually just the credible threat of it) but the chain of logic seems to be too long for common people to understand. And when one side gives up (or is gradually slowly but systematically deprived of) their access to violence, it will lead to oppression.
The world gets a lot simpler and more coherent once you stop trying to define dynamic entities using static terms.
Also Russia: Consistently fails to shoot down military aircraft and missiles, consistently shoots down passenger jets, consistently lies about both
Especially since rt.com's only above-the-fold mention is "Russia-bound airliner crashes in ex-_Soviet_ state (VIDEO)". Nope, they don't need to use the word 'Kazakhstan', the 50% longer, much less descriptive but much more telling 'ex-Soviet state' is the one they're chosen.
"Putin extends condolences over plane crash in ex-Soviet state".
They're literally a parody of themselves. Like, what's the implication here: Shame about the accident, none of this would have happened if we were all still together in a single nation led by us?
https://www-giannibarbacetto-it.translate.goog/2023/09/03/st...
https://www.news18.com/world/oxygen-tank-inside-azerbaijan-a...
(news18 is CNN in India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNN-News18)