That sounds reasonable to me because the compute cost for this level of reasoning performance won’t stay at 10^22 and phones won’t stay at 10^12. This reasoning breakthrough is about 3 months old.
I think expecting five orders of magnitude improvement from either side of this (inference cost or phone performance) is insane.
I don't, because most of the improvement will be algorithmic, not physical.
By a factor of 10,000,000,000? (that's the ten orders of magnitude needed, since the physical side is out). Algorithmic improvements will make this 10 billion times cheaper?