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Comment by dannyw | Hacker News Reader

There was the Newton, PDAs, and Symbian phones before the iPhone.

The technology might need another decade (or two), but I think it’s very shortsighted to think VR/AR is close to its maximum user base.

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Back in the era of Palm Pilots and Blackberries, most people didn't have one, but the people who did have one tended to use them extensively every day. Today, most people don't have VR headsets, and most of the people who do are letting them collect dust on a shelf in their closet.

In the first case you have a type of product that is evidently very useful but isn't ready for the general public. In the second case, you have a product that early adopters can't find a routine use for.

There have been VR headsets since before there were PDAs. The first VR Headsets were made in the 80s by VPL (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VPL_Research). This no where near being a new idea, this is a forty year old idea that gets a resurgence every 5 to 10 years then everyone remembers why it never caught on the last item. It is a niche consumer peripheral, but it has a lot of applications in professions such as Architecture, Engineering, Medicine, Aerospace, and Training. But those industries can probably only support one or two small manufacturers.

Agreed. There’s a lot of variables (and I think price is a big one). But, while slow, adoption in enterprise is showing signs that the basic concept has some legs. Even if the tech today needs some time to marinate.

That said I also don’t think we’re are a time-local maxima of users either.

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