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Stock movements aren't generally justified.

I want the ability to answer such questions with an accuracy slightly over 50%.

return false

You never know the reason for a stock move. Could be that people see Oracle's poor results today as reason GCP will make more money.

If you're a journalist and simply phone a few institutional investors who make up the bulk of this kind of trading and with who you have a trusting relationship, they'll tell you.

If they all mostly agree, that's your answer.

And it's almost always what you assumed anyways from the news, because this stuff isn't rocket science.

So for all practical purposes, yes actually you usually do know, whenever a stock movement is large enough that it's clearly outside the normal noise of day trading.

I mean, can you prove the reason with 100% mathematical certainty? No. But can you be 99% sure? Of course.

You don't need a quantum computer to know everything from now until the end of times has already been priced in.

Oh wow it was up 6.2% at one point this morning from yesterday, now 4.6%.

Depends on which universe you're talking about.