Isn't there a pervasive belief that Republican administrations are better for the economy than Democratic administrations, despite the economy performing better under Democratic administrations for the vast majority of postwar history?
When high inflation is over, prices don't go back down, they just increase at a more reasonable rate going forward. But they'll still feel high for at least a few years as people mentally adjust.
But it's still reasonable to punish those who presided over the inflation spike if you think their policy choices played a role in causing it.
> and most people don't really believe prices will magically drop 30% back to where they were in 2019
You'd be surprised. Most people don't, but a most of the people who voted for him did seem to that he was going to magically drop prices.
So, punished people by electing people with the same policies, just with more lies. Perverse incentive is to keep the same policies, but lie more.
The tools for fooling people are becoming easier to develop and deploy.
* Advertising is failing for news sites, so paywalls are becoming the new thing. Those are a barrier to entry for most potential readers.
* As one of the largest social media platforms, X did made two key moves. First, they limited reach for users who share external links.[1] That breaks news sites' revenue and readership models. Second, the CEO of X came out as a massive Trump amplifier on that platform. Neither of these things limited users' access to information, but it deeply affected their access to truth.
* At the same time Meta backed completely out of the "breaking news" business (maybe on both FB and Threads ... I don't keep track that well).
* Trust in MSM was already declining.
Once the fourth estate was hobbled, social media, podcasts and chat platforms became the dominant means for storytelling. Not only were the Democrats not getting their act together on those platforms, but neither was the press.
Personally? Measured by the number of homeless people I see around me I think the economy is still pretty crappy even though my stock and crypto portfolio is doing great.
[1] https://techround.co.uk/news/musk-limiting-external-links-x/
I have people in my "sphere"[1] who definitely have positive "let the sanity begin" type responses when the economy is under discussion.
[1] I think I like that term and am referring to the body of people with whom I am familiar enough to speak about in this way. Certainly not for though. I am not doing that!
In the crisis era of non-reproducible science and bad data collection is it any surprise the polls are wrong too?
[1] https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-model-exactly-predicted-the...
> ...some amount of self-reported filtering because of the demonization of Trump.
Indeed. He demonizes himself. I was ashamed to admit I voted for him in 2016.
I know plenty of people who have said they have permanently cut off friends and family for having conservative views. I don't know one single conservative who has said the same.
Could it be that progressives haven't behaved badly enough that supporting them warrants cutting off contact?
Like say taking away rights from an enter gender, separating kids from their parents and locking them in cages, granting broad immunity to corrupt ex-Presidents, attempting a coup, openly calling for violence, threatening to use the military against political opponents, etc.
I do not think it means what you think it means.