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> 1) it is not hard to get a silencer. You can make one in under an hour with cheap parts from a hardware store and a drill.

As you can to construct an entire gun, if you want a crude option. But this isn’t Japan. Obtaining a commercial silencer doesn’t require someone to smuggle them through international customs, just across state lines. They’re harder to get than a handgun, but not hard enough to get that a determined and capable assassin couldn’t get.

I think the point was, they’re hard enough to get that common street criminals don’t use them. They’re not something a criminal can just have their girlfriend straw-purchase from the local sporting goods store.

When it comes to DIY suppressors, there's making your own from hardware scrap, making them from various oil and fuel filters, ordering them from an overseas vendor (Ali, Wish, etc) with the risk of customs, and now there's 3d printing.

You can print a fully workable 9mm suppressor on nearly any 3d printer in 8-10 hours or less with no post finishing necessary. No, common street criminals may not use them yet, but I don't think this shooter is a common street criminal, or a professional either.

Someone could do all of this, but it doesn't make any sense for a determined actor to do any of that in a place where it is easy (for a determined, relatively educated, and resourceful person) to get an already polished commercial option.

You have to wait at least 8 months (it varies) to get a suppressor when you buy one. You also have to submit passport photos, get finger printed by either the sheriff or police chief, and then wait. This is in addition to a regular NICS type check.

Also a $200 tax stamp for each suppressor. Again, someone COULD buy a manufactured suppressor legally and tie all their credit info and everything back but according to the news this shooter:

1. Traveled on a Greyhound bus from somewhere between Atlanta to New York in the past 5-10 days

2. Used a fake New Jersey driver's license to register at the hostel he was staying at

3. reportedly wore a mask indoors consistently while staying in the hostel

4. paid cash for everything

He also didn't leave the gun or suppressor behind, so it being tied to his real identity isn't a link to the crime scene.

ATF approvals for individuals are much faster now. Last week I got a Form 4 approval in just 2-3 days.

FYI these wait times are now down to about 2 weeks. The ATF decided to do the bare minimum of process improvements and had a ~10X increase in efficiency.

And you have to have a home address in a state where they are allowed... e.g. not NY. But yeah, I don't think it is incorrect to say they are "hard" to get, especially in context here.

Not any more. An E-Form 4 is now processed in a week or two.

No need for speculations, literally any theory may be a valid one and we simply don't know. Agree re that silencers, they are trivial to make if one has some basic skills and equipment, the problem is usage - you can't use them anywhere where folks may ask questions. Don't mean for hits obviously but some training with silencers is required to wield them well. But maybe in rural US nobody bats an eye, hard to say from across the pond.

But if I have to speculate (who doesn't love that) - could have been a disgruntled veteran. Most of them have some serious health issues, and imagining situation where he isn't treated anymore but feels he should have been isn't that hard for such bad public healthcare system as US has. Or hardcore NRA member with same motivation. On youtube some gunsmith videos go up to (tens of) millions of views.

> But maybe in rural US nobody bats an eye, hard to say from across the pond.

In rural US, people can just shoot in their back yard or public land away from people entirely. At a range (rural or not) where other people are around, you'll get attention if you have anything unusual.

> But if I have to speculate (who doesn't love that) - could have been a disgruntled veteran. Most of them have some serious health issues, and imagining situation where he isn't treated anymore but feels he should have been isn't that hard for such bad public healthcare system as US has.

I'm guessing you're not super familiar with the US healthcare system. The person murdered isn't responsible for the healthcare that veterans or others in the public healthcare system receive. They were the CEO of the largest private insurer, which is the health insurance many of us would rely on through any non-government job. One of the common frustrations with private health insurers is that they deny care that people feel that they need, but the insurer doesn't agree. The public opinion here (and suggested by the words written on the cartridge casings) is that this is related to this.

My friend used to shoot his silenced pistol in his garage, in a suburban neighborhood. Now it was just a .22lr, but he was never noticed.

FYI: In a huge majority of the land in the US, there is no restriction on shooting. Private land outside of cities is fair game, much of the parkland/government owned land is legal for target practice. It really isn't uncommon to hear gunshots, or see shooters out in the country. Shooting with a handgun out in the woods is what some people do when the weather is nice.

Unlikely to be a disgruntled veteran with health issues. Their care is provided by the Veteran's Administration hospital system at no cost. While the VA doesn't have a great reputation, in recent years in has been paying for veterans to see providers outside the VA system also.

Except that the VA health insurance is unironically one of the better options in the US.

...and its still pretty awful. Which says a lot about the entire industry.

The VA is notorious for long delays.

I do not agree, because IMO this exactly matches the profile of a someone disgruntled and willing and able to do the prep work.

What motivation would be more serious than e.g. losing a spouse or child etc. because of their bullshit...?

That's exactly the scenario I find not just most plausible, but draws from the largest pool from which stochastic terrorism is prone to emerge.

This is not meaningfully different from another mass shooting except for the nuance and specificity of the target.

>This is not meaningfully different from another mass shooting except for the nuance and specificity of the target.

Take the Vegas shooting as an example. The planning and prep he put into it show competence, expertise, logistical planning, etc. All because he was (likely) disgruntled about an erosion of high roller perks being given to him by the casino.

Given how controversial the American heathcare system is, the idea that someone affected by it would be the right combination of fanatical and competent enough to plan and execute a symbolic killing doesn’t surprise me at all. It seems like everyone wants there to be a plan from “the people in power”. The idea that one random person could strike such a powerful target makes people feel uncomfortable with a world so chaotic.

The Deny Defend Depose writings on the shell casings are a pretty fantastic red herring if it's NOT a disgruntled family member.

I really don't think most billionaires know professional killers. Where would they have met them? The idea that someone at JP Morgan introduces you to them when their company IPOs doesn't pass the smell test for me.

I think it’s the classic “hey personal assistant to whom I pay 200k/yr, I have a problem, can you handle it discretely?” Kind of thing.

Fast way to get blackmailed and end up in prison.

You need to get connections by ensuring the person recommending you a pro-killer has incentive to ensure you are not discovered.

There's the classic strategy of being vauge-but-clear with one's orders ("Can you deal with this?" "Your Honor, I didn't tell him to kill anyone!") but, disregarding that, it doesn't seem in the employee's best interest. Where does the assistant's $200k/year come from after that? What if the blackmail attempt is rebuffed and the now-former assistant becomes a target for their former employer's new assistant?

Most personal assistants are not going to go find an hire a contract killer for their 200k a year job.

The whole point of fixers are that you pay them a high price and they have a lot of connections and knowledge and can make things happen, and a reputation of discretion to uphold.

I think focusing on the salary number misses the forest for the trees. The specific number isn’t the point.

“Everyone has a price” or something.

yeah, that entry-level FAANG engineer money. and i'm PRETTY sure that those folks aren't paid enough that they're willing to kill for their boss

Reminds me of that scene in Silicon Valley where Gavin clearly wants the protestors killed and he keeps dropping less and less subtle hints at his goons who clearly aren't having it.

> yeah, that entry-level FAANG engineer money.

In the US Amazon pays their SDE1s around $100k/year,with $160k total compensation that is actually relocation bonus bundled with vested stock paid in 4 years.

Elsewhere, salaries are even lower.

So, definitely not entry level FANG engineer money.

https://youtu.be/Q1qKVuf1aFQ?si=siqGgzXS_Yctvh_Z

Think of all the numerous cases of wealthy people winding up in court because they were ratted on by their underlings over things far more minor than requesting they find a hit man, and ask yourself again why what you describe is both uncommon and a bad idea.

On the other hand, if you're wealthy and already a crime figure, working with and having work for you people who know you have organized crime contacts and resources, then yes, you could find "fixers" and assistants who would do just what you describe, probably for less money too.

They'd already be part of the same world and comfortable with requests like these while also knowing that you're not just some schmuck rich guy who can't really retaliate against them if they squeal or fuck up. Your anger over a mistake would have more weight.

Even then however, many lower-rung people in organized crime are also quite stupid and reckless, and think here too of the many wealthy criminals who also wind up in court because they were ratted on by their now protected, cooperating witness underlings.

The conference started at 8am, the assassination happened at 6:45am. The assassin was only waiting there for a few minutes ahead of time. It's surprising how "on time" the assassin was. Wasn't waiting around there for an hour or anything. Seemed like he knew when the CEO would arrive.

> 1) it is not hard to get a silencer. You can make one in under an hour with cheap parts from a hardware store and a drill.

You could, may even still can, buy them on Amazon.

For a while there was a big market on Amazon for "lawnmower mufflers" that were pretty blatant nudge nudge wink wink:

"This muffler fits lawnmowers with a 9mm exhaust. I was able to use my lawnmower all morning long and my neighbor could barely hear a thing!"

Oh man, 9mm exhaust. Reminds me of the non EPA compliant fuel can spouts that say “for use with water only” and “not drinking water safe.”

Could you give an example of what the motive could be then, and how the not-professional-but-sort-of-professional fits into this?

I had thought it was either (a) professional hit or (b) disgruntled family member.

> I had thought it was either (a) professional hit or (b) disgruntled family member.

There is also option (c) a professional hit hired by a disgruntled family member.

Still, I believe some variant of option (b) is the most likely scenario—unless the whole thing has been intentionally orchestrated to look like (b).

When I say some variant of (b), I'm also including someone who hypothetically wasn't even personally affected but felt a strong political motivation to perform the shooting in solidarity. I can absolutely imagine the profile of the kind of person who would meticulously plan this and carry it out out of sheer political motivation.

100% agree.