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Comment by k_roy | Hacker News Reader

Unfortunately, there’s just not a driving business force to do it.

The 2030 flag day for ipv4 is just a dream.

The business case is that networks are getting better but NAT hardware isn't keeping up. Dual-stack users are increasingly likely to have a good v6 connection and very marginal v4, and just abandoning v4 support entirely lets you stop caring about that.

It hasn’t arrived yet but the trend is there and the cutoff point exists.

It's not enough to be dual-stack, happy eyeballs only really handles the broken v6/good v4 case and is too eager to fall back to a broken but minimally functional v4. You have to run v6-only services to not pay the NAT tax.

> The business case is that networks are getting better but NAT hardware isn't keeping up.

Network improvements are not distributed evenly. Most US broadband users are still on ADSL or DOCSIS and I would guess most use the cheapest (and slowest) available plan. With bandwidth per user being stagnant for years they don't need to upgrade CGNAT hardware (if they use it). Wireless providers grow faster and they are adopting IPv6.

But there is another side - server operators have much less reasons to adopt IPv6 than wireless/broadband ISP. Many high traffic sites are IPv4 only and I don't think they are loosing money because of this.

> Most US broadband users are still on ADSL or DOCSIS

... VDSL (ie up to 100Mbit), surely? I can't imagine there are many ADSL (ie up to, at most, 24Mbit) users left.

Yes VDSL likely is more common nowadays but in publicly available stats they are counted together so better to call it xDSL or just DSL. E. g. https://www.fcc.gov/reports-research/reports/measuring-broad... talks about DSL and DLS speeds not that high.

Odd that they lump them together; they're related, certainly, but _used_ very differently (in practice, VDSL is nearly always FTTC, ADSL tends to be fibre to the exchange). If an ISP offered me VDSL, well, I wouldn't be thrilled, but it would be usable. If they offered me ADSL I'd be wondering if I'd accidentally stepped back in time a decade or so. Based on the figures above, though, looks like there actually _is_ still a good bit of ADSL in use in the US!

Available IPv4 address space running out in many regions of the world seems like a good business case.

"running out" in practice means "getting more expensive", as many entities who own (unnecessarily) large swaths of the IPv4 space are reselling them.

In practice it also means literally running out since there are less IPv4 addresses than there are people (and much less computers that might want to connect to the Internet).

The people who would truly benefit from it have already switched. What's left is mostly either people who aren't even aware it exists (like home users), or admins of small/medium-sized networks who are either scared of change, or have a budget which is barely large enough to keep the lights on.

This can also be because they bought hardware from a bad vendor, like Ubiquity, which used to support IPv6… in software routing only giving it a max throughput of something like 50mbps on their small business/prosumer hardware. There are also routers by brands like Microtik that have garbage IPv6 throughput unless you flash OpenWRT which packages the driver that enables hardware IPv6 routing, something that somehow wasn't included in the official firmware.

All of these devices claim to support IPv6 and technically they do, so shopping for decent hardware quickly becomes a minefield. Seems to me like consumer hardware has better IPv6 support than the supposedly professional tiers.

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