People will still be able to learn how to program and actually program. But if they take money or deal with people's private information, then they'll need to comply with the standards that will be regulated.
I think we need to start thinking of an individual's persona which includes all the information about them that is online or in government (non secret) files.
That needs to be considered when designing regarding regulations for software that interacts with someone's persona.
So anyone can set up the equivalent of an art stand in the park (serving cat pics), but if they start either selling cat pics or selling advertising that relies on collecting information about the personas on the site, then that needs to be regulated.