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> Outlays have not come down to anything close to pre-COVID levels.

Federal Net Outlays as Percent of GDP have been around 20% since ~1980:

* https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S

They jumped to 30% in 2020, and are on a downward trend, with 2023 being at 22%.

Technically true not down to 20% in 2019, but not as horrendous as many people think.

You have to inflation adjust the 2019 numbers to get the comparables for 2025. And not using the CPI (which is aimed at individuals), but using an index based on what the government actually spends the money on :)

Can you explain why you think spending jumped in 2020?