Comment by maxsilver | Hacker News Reader

Comment by maxsilver | Hacker News Reader

It's weird how wildly different this statistic is, compared to real life observation.

At least in the midwest, we have had a record-high number of kids for the last 10 years or so (so many more kids that new schools keep being built to try to keep up with it because each new year the number of enrolled kindergarteners is higher than prior, daycare facilities have a minimum 1 year waiting list and many are closer to 2 years, summer camps sell out entirely in minutes, etc)

I think people hear "low fertility rate" and just assume this means "adults aren't becoming parents" or "not enough kids being born".

But if you spend 5 minutes on the ground, it becomes immediately apparent that we have the opposite problem -- there's so many more kids being born and raised than before, and most of our municipal/regional support systems for parents and children have not yet expanded to accommodate the slow-surge in births.

The US hit peak school age children a few years ago. Projections have it on a decline. While painted as midwest, I imagine these may be hyper-local issues. If you look at recent historical changes, there has not been some magic growth spurt and most states have been in a peak decline.

Since the statistic applies to the whole US, it's biased towards urban population centers.

E.g. the lack of K-12 kids in SF almost caused the shutdown of 11 schools due to the lack of funding that comes primarily from the number of enrolled students, they halted the closures in lieu of other cost saving approaches due to the political pressures of shutting down schools, but the truth remains that there are fewer kids in population centers.

Same here in Seattle, both in the city proper and in the surrounding suburbs. Many public schools closing down due to lower enrollment. Partly because many parents are opting for private school, but also because there are fewer kids in the area. Many possible explanations: It's expensive to afford a big enough house for a family, people are having fewer or no kids, many people unable to find a partner, etc.

The midwest has fewer people than the country writ large.

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