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By some estimates, 900K people have left Russia since the invasion [1], of whom 100K were IT specialists leaving in 2022 alone [2] (I haven't looked at the figures since then). I think that's a pretty strong indication of the sentiment.
And wrt the economy, didn't the Central Bank just increase the benchmark rate to 21% [3] (with another 2% hike widely expected in December)?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_emigration_during_the_...
https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/04/04/1070352/ukraine-...
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/10/29/russia-s-key-interes...
> I think that's a pretty strong indication of the sentiment.
Some left following their western employers, some fled from the mobilization in 2022.
>And wrt the economy, didn't the Central Bank just increase the benchmark rate to 21%
It did, that's why I said 'mostly'. Kremlin is pumping money into defense industry and into payments to contract soldiers, the Central Bank is doing what it can to curb the inflation. Overall it hasn't affected the life much.
Well, yes, and what do you think the impact of it is going to be on the economy?
Military overspending literally killed Soviet Union, and people returning from Afghanistan war made guaranteed the unforgettable social climate after that. I don't see any reason to be bullish on Russia, even if Trump now gives up Ukraine for Putin.
The ones I was reading emphasised the need for a strong sanctions regime with penalties for third party workarounds, with the reasoning given that Russia had prepared its economy for war and already isolated it to some extent.
Maybe your typical cable TV talking head pundit might’ve been confident about Russia’s economy collapsing, but the actual professional analysts and civil servants who advise governments were much more cautious.