Not necessarily, but the total number of voters for both candidates is down compared to 2020. This election will be a story of who chose not to vote.

Because we know that those who didn't turnout who've voted before were mostly democrats

Harris' vote total was down from Biden 2020 by 15M and Trump's was down from 2020 by like 4M. So a net 11M Dem voters didn't show up.