I think there's plenty of scenarios where AGI causes doom that's short of extinction but still super bad.

I don't know what the probability of these scenarios are.

LLMs are remarkably incapable but still seem to be pretty effective at crushing the morale and initiative of many students.

Deepfakes are going to make it harder and harder for anyone to determine what's actually true.

The machines don't have to kill us or directly crush our quality of life. If they disrupt the social order enough, we'll do that to ourselves.