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Comment by EasyMark | Hacker News Reader

That’s a bizarre hill to die on, I see all kinds of larger people survive into their 90s when I was living near and volunteering at a nursing home as a teenager

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I see all kinds of larger people survive into their 90s

So dangerous to extrapolate from anecdotal observation like this. If I see old people smoking, doesn't mean smoking is safe. It just means it doesn't kill at 100% effectiveness.

> It just means it doesn't kill at 100% effectiveness.

If you wait long enough, everything has a 100% effectiveness.

if you wait long enough, obesity actually becomes a protective factor for serious issues; like Falling & Sarcopenia.

I see “plenty” of life long smokers making it to their 80s and 90s too, that doesn’t mean it didn’t take out 90% of them along the way.

Good example of how people overestimate the impact of these things. Closer to 10% of smokers get lung cancer.

But COPD, Emphysema and cardio vascular issues also affect smokers, it’s not just lung cancer.

Sure.but I don't think it escalates to a 90% death rate

It's actually a 100% death rate as all smokers sure. Jokes aside, your statement doesn't have meaning. Many deaths are not attributable to a single cause. However, it's been studies endlessly and is well accepted that smoking increases all-cause mortality.

Im not arguing against that at all. I was making a point about the magnitude of that impact.

People tend to over-estimate the impact of both smoking and obesity.

That’s the funny thing: at homes and nursing homes all around America you will find WW2 veterans. One could conclude that WW2 wasn’t dangerous from that, I suppose.

You could conclude that WW2 wasnt 100% fatal. Actual death rates was about 1 in 40, ie 2.5%

Depending on your priors, This may be a lot or not

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

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