> ChatGPT Plus has no real moat, little product differentiation (outside of its advanced voice mode, which Meta is already working on a competitor to), and increasing commoditization from other models, open source platforms, and even on-device models (like on Copilot+-powered PCs).

This is the only thing that matters imo and the biggest open question to me. All the math surrounding this is irrelevant if being the premier genAI API/service is something you can charge good money for (to businesses who likely won't scrimp). Winning that market share battle is worth burning billions for most likely and they are ahead of everyone else.