> I think most manned war vehicles are dead now.
IMO, submarines - especially nuclear subs probably have decades of life left at a minimum.
But yeah - everything else is starting to look very vulnerable.
IMO, submarines - especially nuclear subs probably have decades of life left at a minimum.
But yeah - everything else is starting to look very vulnerable.
Torpedoes are forced to use physical wires for remote guidance because nothing else works.
It would be pretty easy for someone to develop a quiet, long-range torpedo that can be launched undetected outside active sonar range. (Assuming this capability doesn’t already exist.)
Also, SSNs already carry long-range drones called cruise missiles.
Manned subs will take a long time to become obsolete.
To be fair, I’m (partly) playing devil’s advocate, but I don’t think the tech to create a fully or nearly fully autonomous attack sub is that far out. Key point is that you would have to be willing to give it more autonomy than the current crop of UAVs.
There are a lot of problems.
Technically, you need the resources of a nation-state to make stealthy ones that can operate at depth. There are no off the shelf systems you can strap together. Salt water and pressure destroys things very quickly. It wouldn’t take long for non-moving propellers to get fouled with debris. If you want a mine that launches a torpedo, I think that already exists. If you don’t need to operate at depth, a surface drone would be sufficient. If you’re attacking ships, aerial drones or missiles are better.
If you’re not a nation-state, diesel-electric submarines have been around for more than a century. They are easier to build and will be for a long time.
Even once you have drones, what are they attacking? The US has less than a hundred submarines.
In my opinion, this is an advanced technology weapon as part of a combined arms strategy. Basically a more sophisticated torpedo.
As such, only nuclear AI subs may be viable, since that gives the strategic advantage of a submarine that doesn't need to resurface for like years. But putting nuclear reactors in an autonomous AI system sounds like a terrible idea.
Human societies have spent millenia developing the infrastructure to produce reliable/trustworthy soldiers. AI is not nearly at that level in terms of trustworthiness/fault tolerance, even if they will quickly be as smart as soliders.
Not much radio range under 500m of water.