> "That's something that can be easily fixed in a future release (...)"
This has been the default excuse for the last 5+ years. I won't hold my breath.
This has been the default excuse for the last 5+ years. I won't hold my breath.
Today we have these realistic videos that are still in the uncanny valley. That's insane progress in the span of a year. Who knows what it will be like in another year.
Let'em cook.
2 years ago we had decent video generation for clips
7 months ago we have Sora https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39393252 (still silence since then)
With these things, like DALL-E 1 and GPT-3, the original release of the game changer often comes ca. 2 years before people can actually use it. I think that's what we're looking at.
I.e. it's not as fast as you think.
And isn’t this model open source…? So we get access to it, like, momentarily? Or did I miss something?
When the Will Smith one was released, it was kind of a parody though. Tech had already been able to produce that level of "quality" for about 2 years at the time of it's publishing. The Will Smith one is honestly something you could have created with Disco Diffusion in early 2021, I used to do this back then...
2022 saw: https://makeavideo.studio/ (coherent, but low res - it was possible to upscale at extreme expense) https://sites.research.google/phenaki/ https://lumiere-video.github.io/
It was more like 18-20 months ago sorry so early 2023, but https://runwayml.com/research/gen-1 was getting there as was https://pika.art/home - Sora obviously changed the game, but I would say these two were great.
The only interesting questions now have nothing to do with capability but with economics and raw resources.
In a few years, or less, clearly we'll be able to take our favorite books and watch unabridged, word-for-word copies. The quality, acting, and cinematography will rival the biggest budget Hollywood films. The "special effects" won't look remotely CG like all of the newest Disney/Marvel movies -- unless you want them to. If publishers put up some sort of legal firewall to prevent it, their authors, characters, and stories will all be forgotten.
And if we can spend $100 of compute and get something I described above, why wouldn't Disney et al throw $500m at something to get even more out of it, and charge everyone $50? Or maybe we'll all just be zoo animals soon (Or the zoo animals will have neuralink implants and human level intelligence, then what?)
I'm also expecting, before 2030, that video game pipelines will be replaced entirely. No more polygons and textures, not as we understand the concepts now, just directly rendering any style you want, perfectly, on top of whatever the gameplay logic provided.
I might even get that photorealistic re-imagining of Marathon 2 that I've been wanting since 1997 or so.
I don't think so at all. You're thinking a movie is just the end result that we watch in theaters. Good directing is not a text prompt, good editing is not a text prompt, good acting is not a text prompt. What you'll see in a few years is more ads. Lots of ads. People who make movies aren't salivating at this stuff but advertising agencies are because it's just bullshit content meant to distract and be replaced by more distractions.
But at the same time, while it is indeed true that the end result is far more than simply just making good images, LLMs are weird interns at everything — with all the negative that implies as well as the positive, so they're not likely to produce genuinely award winning content all by themselves even though they can do better by asking them for something "award winning" — so it's certainly conceivable that we'll see AI indeed do all these things competently at some point.
That would be a boring movie.
AI in general is from 1950, or more generally from whenever the abacus was invented. This very website runs on AI, and always has. I would implore us to speak more exactly if we’re criticizing stuff; “LLMs” came around (in force) in 2023, both for coherent language use (ChatGPT 3.5) and image use (DALLE2). The predecessors were an order of magnitude less capable, and going back 5 years puts us back in the era of “chatbots”, aka dumb toys that can barely string together a Reddit comment on /r/subredditsimulator.
> AI so far has given us ability to mass produce shit content of no use to anybody
Good AI goes largely undetected, for the simple reason that it closely matches the distribution of non-AI content.
Controversial aside: This is same bias that results in non-passing trans people being representative of the whole. Passing trans folk simply blend in.
All criminals seem so incredibly stupid that you can’t understand why anyone would ever try since they all are caught? The smart ones don’t get caught and no one ever hears about them.