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Nvidia mid or long term has no moat. It has to keep innovating. Groq are coming for them. AWS are coming for them. TSMC are in a country that could be at war in the next 10 years.

Guess thats a spicy take :)

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Nvidia's Moat is CUDA, it's become so entrenched in development stacks that people have inertia in moving to anything else. I've been in situations where I've wanted to use other GPUs and everyone's said to be "but surely you want Nvidia?!" because it's the de facto now. AMD, Intel and others haven't done enough to break the NVidia API monopoly in the past decade. Intel's done stuff with One and AMD sponsored that CUDA converter thing. But there's not been enough effort to break through even when that's fundamentally the blocker.

If AMD and Intel want to compete, they need to think about the early years of computer software development. When people would say "Oh, we're not going to port our software for Amiga, PCs are now more popular." There is some portability in games for new GPUs, but it's CUDA in scientific and enterprise where they should have broken the CUDA stranglehold.

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