This assumes companies have finite backlogs. AI will raise productivity, but to date no company has said 'our software is done, send all the programmers home.' Instead companies expand what they want from their software.

The rate of change could make the short term bumpy as companies try to play around with less dev work. Eventually though competition will push companies to raise their productivity to the new baseline (programmers + AI).

One thing that is a danger is if devs ignore what's happening in AI. I remember when Google first came out having to learn the art of querying Google to get what I was looking for. AI/LLMs looks to be the same - ignore learning how to leverage them at your own peril.