Many of you saying stuff like this were the same naysayers who have been terribly wrong about scaling for the last 6-8 years or people who only started paying attention in the last two years.
The same battle was/is had around cryptography - telling people they can't use or distribute cryptography algorithms on consumer hardware never stopped bad people from having real time functionally unbreakable encryption.
The safety plan must be around somehow handling the resulting problems when they happen, not hoping to make it never occur even once for the rest of time. Eventually a bad guy is going to make an indecipherable call, eventually an enemy country or rogue operator is going to nuke a place, eventually an AI is going to ${scifi_ai_thing}. The safety of all society can't rest on audits and good intention preventing those from ever happening.
Nukes are a far more primitive technology (i.e., enrichment requires only more basic industrial capabilities) than AI hardware, yet they are probably the best example of tech limitations via international agreements.
But the algorithms are mostly public knowledge, datacenters are no secret, and the chips aren't even made in the US. I don't see what leverage California has to regulate AI broadly.
So it seems like the only thing such a bill would achieve is to incentivize AI research to avoid California.
Which, incidentally, would be pretty bad from a climate change perspective since many of the alternative locations for datacenters have a worse mix of renewables/nuclear to fossil fuels in their electricity generation. ~60% of VA's electricity is generated from burning fossil fuels (of which 1/12th is still coal) while natural gas makes up less than 40% of electricity generation in California, for example
It's looking like cooling water may be more of a limiting factor. Yet, even this can be greatly reduced when electric power is cheap enough.
Solar power is already "cheaper than free" in many places and times. If the initial winner-take-all training race ever slows down, perhaps training can be scheduled for energy cost-optimal times and places.
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/flow-graphs/electricity...
14.26 Net generation
0.67 "Transmission and delivery losses and unaccounted for"
IMO, this is what 'winning' looks like.
Solar provides cheap power only when it's producing.
And direct sabotage, eg Stuxnet.
And outright assassination eg https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55128970
Regardless, I just read the transcript for that video and he doesn’t give any timeline so it seems premature to crow that he was wrong.
If you watch the video he's clearly saying this was was something that was already happening. Keep in mind it was made 10 years ago, and in it he says "this isn't science fiction; the robots are here right now." When bringing up the 25% unemployment rate he says "just the stuff we talked about today, the stuff that already works, can push us over that number pretty soon."
Baxter being able to do everything a worker can for a fraction of the price definitely wasn't true.
Here's what he said about self-driving cars. Again, this was 2014: "Self driving cars aren't the future - they're here and they work."
"The transportation industry in the united states employs about 3 million people. Extrapolating worldwide, that's something like 70 million jobs at a minimum. These jobs are over."
> I’m talking about actual academics like Ilya, Hinton, etc.
Which of Hinton's statements are you claiming were dismissed by people here but were later proven to be correct?
We have electrical codes. These require disconnects just about everywhere. The notion that any system somehow couldn't be "turned off" with or without the consent of the operator is downright laughable.
> were the same naysayers
Now who's being snide and dismissive? Do you want to argue the point or are you just interested in tossing ad hominem attacks around?
Not so clear when you are inferencing a distributed model across the globe. Doesn't seem obvious that shutdown of a distributed computing environment will always be trivial.
> Now who's being snide and dismissive?
Oh to be clear, nothing against being dismissive - just the particular brand of dismissiveness of 'scifi' safety scenarios is naive.
Does anyone remember Sen. Lieberman's "Internet Kill Switch" bill?
In all seriousness, if we ever get to the point where an AI needs to be shut down to avoid catastrophe, there's probably no way to turn it off.
There are digital controls for damned near everything, and security is universally disturbingly bad.
Whatever you're trying to stop will already have root-kitted your systems (and quite possibly have replicated) by the time you realise that it's even beginning to become a problem.
You could only shut it down if there's a choke point accessible without electronic intervention, and you'd need to reach it without electronic intervention, and do so without communicating your intent.
Yes, that's all highly highly improbable - but you seem to believe that you can just turn off the Genie, when he's already seen you coming and is having none of it.
> There are digital controls for damned near everything, and security is universally disturbingly bad.
Just unplug the thing.
You'll be dead before you reach the plug.
There's a good chance that you won't know where it is - if you even did to begin with (which particular AI even went rogue?).
> Or did the AI take over the fighter jets too?
Dunno - how secure are the systems?
But it's almost certainly fucking with the GPS.
How do you turn off Llama-Omega if it turns out that it can be prompt-hacked into a malicious agent?
2. If it turns into a malicious agent you just hit the "off switch", or, more likely just stop the software, like you turn off your word processor.