Given how difficult it’s proven to build new nuclear around the world, what are the odds of this recommissioning being on time and budget?
The delay is usually heavily on the permitting/legal challenges/etc. stage, not actual concrete-pouring and equipment installation, so an already-once-permitted site will probably do better relatively, too.
Extra reactors at exising operating sites would make even more sense, though. Putting 2-4 extra AP-1000 at ~1GW/ea at each of the 54 facilities operating today would be huge and minimal incremental risk, and if there were a shortcut one time permitting process for it...
Average construction times have been more or less constant the last five decades and are currently at 6.5 years (trend: slightly falling). Median (typical) time is lower.
https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/nuclear-constructi...
Like everything, this gets better with practice.
Does that sound more like an nth of a kind project, or a first of a kind project?
(The originally submitted Vogtle-3/4 design could not be built)
In fact, last I checked they had already planned this refurbishment, but could not obtain the funds to do it, and thus shut down the plant instead.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯