> Hezbollah just two months ago shot a rocket into a football field, killing 12 Israeli children.
This is far from confirmed and is effectively just an opinion (not that children were killed, but that Hezbollah was responsible).
This is far from confirmed and is effectively just an opinion (not that children were killed, but that Hezbollah was responsible).
I'll just quote Wikipedia here:
> Israel blamed Hezbollah for carrying out the attack with an Iranian-made Falaq-1 rocket equipped with a 53-kilogram warhead.[7][9] Hezbollah said it had targeted a nearby military base and that the football pitch was hit by an errant Israeli Iron Dome air defence projectile. Western sources dismissed this claim, citing expert opinion that the rocket had been fired by Hezbollah or another militant group in Lebanon.[9][10][11][4][12]
Even if Hezbollah is correct that it was an errant Iron Dome projectile (which as you can see, is widely disputed), that would still be Hezbollah's fault, because the whole reason Iron Dome rockets need to be fired is because of Hezbollah's attacks on Israel.
What level of convincing do you think we need to take this from "unconfirmed" and "just an opinion" to confirmed?
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Wikipedia aside, Hezbollah has fired thousands, maybe tens of thousands of rockets at Israel over the last year, causing ~80k people to have to flee their homes, destroying parts of cities, and causing massive fires. They've been targeting civilians non-stop for almost a year.
Given this massive prior, I think on balance it is far more likely that this strike was another case of these thousands of other cases, and the reason they're denying it is because this one specifically wasn't intercepted and killed a lot of kids.
You really think that that's not more likely?
Hezbollah, a designated terrorist organization, shoots thousands of rockets, claims them all, including initially attacks 3km from that field, but then when it turns out it killed a bunch of kids, denies responsibility. And you think taking their word for it is the more likely correct thing here?
You appear to be making the argument that my claim that this has not been conclusively confirmed is wrong because of what is likely/unlikely. That is fallacious and frankly comes across as disingenuous.
If you are going to make the strong claim you need to back it up with real evidence or you risk being accused of promoting misinformation for the purposes of justifying further death and suffering.
To the best of my knowledge the source of the rocket has not been confirmed. Are you claiming that it has (IDF or US repetition of IDF claims not withstanding)?
> What level of convincing do you think we need to take this from "unconfirmed" and "just an opinion" to confirmed?
Independent verification of the debris would settle this conclusively. Hasn't happened. Why not? Especially given that it was used to justify an escalation. Without verifiable evidence to support it that just looks like cynical use of these children's deaths to inflict more suffering for political purposes.
> I don't read the Hezbollah channels
ok... [1]
> The only reason to sow doubt is to protect these monsters.
i personally dispute misinformation because, well, it's misinformation and it's used by state actors to escalate violence. [2]
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[1] "Hezbollah, the most powerful paramilitary and political force in Lebanon, was quick to say it was not behind the attack, a rare denial from a group that normally claims every attack launched."
[2] "With Israel vowing retaliation for what was the highest civilian death toll in Israel-held territory since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel, diplomats rushed to prevent an escalation that could spiral into an all-out war after months of exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah over the Lebanese-Israeli border."
source: https://apnews.com/article/israel-golan-heights-soccer-rocke...
> > I don't read the Hezbollah channels
I read the Gaza channels. They republish things from other channels. Right now I'm subscribed only to Gaza Now as that seems to be the source of much information that the other channels republish, as much news being made is being made in Gaza.
> i personally dispute misinformation because, well, it's misinformation and it's used by state actors to escalate violence.
The idea that this missile was not from Hezbollah is misinformation. They claimed it then retracted it. People there state that it came from Lebanon, apparently backed up by the direction of the debris and video. And the Druze - who famously abhor conflict - state that it came from Lebanon and they petitioned the Israeli government not to retaliate. If there were any doubt, the Druze themselves would be saying it.
To date, there has been no independent verification of the weapon's remains. At this point it is very much a case of "he said, she said". On that basis I can only ask, why would Hezbollah deliberately target the Druze civilian population? You seem to imply that they did so deliberately (i.e. deliberately targeted these civilians). That, in my opinion is simply your opinion and not based on verifiable fact. There is not even a likely motivation for such an act.
To be clear, I am fully willing to accept - given the available evidence - that Hezbollah may have made a miscalculation and are responsible for the deaths of these children. Deliberately though? Very, very doubtful.
However, I do owe you an apology. In an earlier comment I claimed that you had implied that Hezbollah was deliberately targeting civilians in this latest conflict and after rereading it seems you haven't made this claim. Sorry.
What level of proof are you looking for? Hezbollah even claimed responsibility then retracted it when it was found to have hit a non-military target.
It seems pretty clear that independent verification of the debris would settle this conclusively. Hasn't happened. Why?
Because it was used as justification for a major escalation.
> Hezbollah attacks against Israel - and there have been literally thousands of such rocket attacks recently.
It does. Hezbollah denied it. They haven't been in the habit of doing that.
> This isn't the type of rocket that Israel uses at all.
Again, you are making claims without possibly being sure of them - unless you take the Israeli government's word for it - you cannot possibly be sure. Neither can I.
Anyhow, as it's clear that you are unwilling to entertain the possibility that this was not a Hezbollah rocket, I don't think there is anything to be gained from continuing this discussion.
I note that you are commenting from Israel. I am not. I'm a long way from this conflict. I hope that you and your loved ones are safe and can soon enjoy the kind of security and freedoms that most of us take for granted.