My guess is software engineers still have about 2-3 years of employment left. After that they will look like those switchboard operators who manually plugged cables to connect phone calls.
Why do I feel this way? Because I expect significant improvement from Orion, and I don’t think it will stop improving after that.
By that time I really hope we will have some sort if UBI, so at least we won’t starve to death.
Most software teams can pretty much run themselves and the only real use a SWE manager has imo is running interference because the rest of the company are morons and/or chaotic and being the gopher for things the team needs. I think a manager who isn't also participating in the work should be removed as they are a net-negative.
If the rest of the company is calm and sane, in my opinion, you could have a team with senior+ ICs that take turns doing planning or doing a collaborative planning.
You just said developers will be gone in 2-3 years. There won't be any humans to manage. Did you mean you'll be a SWE manager of LLMs?
Yes, hopefully for a couple more years until such managers are themselves automated.
Could you share the scientific basis for this expectation? Something other than pure hype from OpenAI would be good.
Respectfully, short of actually providing a shred of convincing evidence that isn't backed by your feelings, the plights of the mediocre are deserving of intense derision.
Your idiotic demoralization of those starting their careers will not fester into the industry. The mods will ban my account here before than happens.