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> I'm dead sure it will get it correct within 5 years

You might be right.

But plenty of people said we'd all be getting around in self-driving cars for sure 10 years ago.

we do have self driving car but since it directly affects people's life it needs to be close to 100% accurate and no margin of errors. Not necessarily the case for LLMs.

No, we have cars that can drive themselves quite well in good weather, but fail completely in heavy snow/poor visibility. Which is actually a great analogy to LLMs - they work great in the simple cases (80% of the time), it’s that last 20% that’s substantially harder.

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