Insurance companies manage to find ways to price insurance for Hollywood actors storming off set.

Same way insurance companies insure satellite launches. Lots of guesses and getting another insurance company to underwrite their insurance deals.

Just estimate the probability of payout. Yes you can do this for non-repeating, hard-to-model events: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-continued-defense-of-non...

I do it all the time without making actuarial tables, as do insurance companies.