You say I'm wrong, but in your first sentence you agree with me.

I'm not saying that this site will never get any visitors. Just that it will never be anything more than a site that happens to host the content of Fox and NBC-- i.e. no more than they could have got by simply putting their stuff on their existing sites, without starting a separate company as a joint venture.

If you're so sure I'm wrong, bet me. I'll be happy to bet you money if we can think of a sufficiently precise test.