- Microsoft was in the phone business long before the iPhone and their allegiance to Windows was one of the big reasons they sucked.

- Massive Windows 8 sales numbers are far from guaranteed.

- They've diverged pretty radically from the iPad UI. I'm happy to see this, but this also means they can't count on similarities to the iPad to drive sales.

This may in fact turn out to be a hit but I'm not persuaded by your arguments.