Have you seen FSD 12.5.1.3?
In a Waymo, you sit in the back seat and scroll your phone and it gets you safely to your destination every time. These are not even remotely comparable products.
Tesla's generalized driving algorithm vs Waymo's cherry-picked routes and ideal weather.
Tesla is winning. And the gap is getting wider.
This necessarily involves some kind of generalized driving algorithm but more usefully, it gives you a clear goal and distribution to measure against.
FSD has been set to come out in a year or so since 2014. At this point nobody should be foolish enough to give Tesla the benefit of the doubt; if they have a self-driving car, then they'll take legal liability for its actions, and if they won't take legal liability for its actions, they don't have a self-driving car. This is as true for any company as it is for Tesla, although Tesla is the only one who's seen fit to lie about it for a decade.
I encourage you to watch some of the videos on Twitter.
It's here. It's now.
12.5.1.3 is incredible. But it's still Level 3, attempting to do something stupid at least on every trip I've been in one.
I think Tesla will figure out Level 4 in the near future. What makes the "year or so" unrealistic is it will have to convince regulators that it's safe. For a variety of reasons, partly legitimate and partly due to Musk's antics, that might be difficult in a lot of the most lucrative markets (and markets where Teslas are).
Top comment's estimate for 2030 parity with Waymo et al is more realistic.
I, for one, will be surprised ... in fact put me down for "very surprised".
It did a few things better than my Ford and Hyundai vehicles, but it was wildly unpredictable when it’d just decide to stop working. That’s a big problem for me.