Could we say that we've reached the "Peak of inflated expectations" on the Gartner hype curve for AI and we're softly entering the "Trough of disillusionment"?
Back when GPT-2 was released, you could draw an exponential curve to fit the rate of capability increase in AI over the prior five years. If you extend that curve to today, frontier models are still on that same curve.
That underlying rate of improvement isn't useful for predicting if Nvidia will be up or down next week, but it's a pretty strong signal for how things might play out longer term.
At some point the exponential growth portion of the S-curve will exhaust itself, but there's no hint of that yet.
So are the training costs.
> you could draw an exponential curve
Once you plot the costs on that curve it becomes obvious that this technology, by itself, is inadequate to achieve the goals stated for it.
> growth portion of the S-curve will exhaust itself
So will all the available entropy in the universe. Single ended analyses like this are a cornerstone of the hype machine.
I wouldn't blame them. I would blame the people who _own_ those outlets. As they're the ones with an actual interest in obscuring the truth.
> spend a lot of money marketing their newfangled toys
There are lots of short term ideas in the market place. None of them are particularly novel. So, it should be surprising, particularly in the era of the internet, that they still work.
unless some new technology or advances or killer feature is made. this hype wont be reached again with this eras ai. i mean even then i dont think itll reach the peek that just passed its more human nature then anything else
AI does have some genuinely interesting potential applications and we have already seen it disrupt certain fields, it's just a matter of time before those applications persuade investors to come back.