Slide 31 has a counterfactual exercise.
>at least provide some interesting and plausible counterfactuals.
https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1Mf6ppwK0xkxMFXRo6X_r...
PS I am the author of the posted piece + the deck.
I do hand-wring. On the one hand, I am overjoyed that we the allies won WWII in no small part due to innovation that VB led. On the other hand, we all live with an atomic-sword-of-Damocles hanging over all of our heads. I explore ways that might have been otherwise.
Would a hagiography have been preferred? I find it interesting that in his obit in The Tech of 50 years ago, it elides mention of his role in kickstarting the Manhattan Project. Whoever wrote it - family, administrators - didn't seem to be in a hagiographic mood either.