Remember, the only reason Reddit "won" was because Digg destroyed itself with a radical upgrade that everyone hated.
Reddit would have to do something similarly self-inflicted, and I can't even guess where people would go. Reddit was already an alternative to Digg -- what's the alternative to Reddit? I mean, it's certainly not Quora.
The main thing I see Reddit being useful for are discussions about entertainment.
There's probably a subreddit for your favorite sports team, twitch steamer, TV show, book series video game, politics (which is entertainment for some people).
Reddit has seriously degraded the experience of a lot of these communities with things like restricting custom CSS.
It seems to me that the way you'd disrupt Reddit as a startup is to pick a vertical and laser focus on becoming the best discussion board for that community. If it's sports than have integrations for live stats, scores, etc.
In general you could attract users by offering profit sharing on ads the same way Youtube does for creators.
Have the best moderation tools in the world, a constant painpoint with Reddit. Give admins more flexibility over the appearance of the board, all things Reddit took away.
The other path for disruption would be if an established company with those communities tackled the problem. Lots of communities already us Discord, but they tend to also have a subreddit because chat and forums are different communication methods. Discord could easily offer a forum product as an extension of their chat services. If they do it well they'd drive a lot of users away from the subreddits.
>what's the alternative to Reddit? I mean, it's certainly not Quora.
If it was deliberate I certainly can't tell, but one of the characteristics of Reddit is that it caused so many other little tiny internet forums to just wither away. Most were visually unappealing, running some ancient phpbb software or whatever, but there were so many like stars in the night sky. Now, if they're even still running, you look for the newest post, and it will say "November 2023". Hell, the only reason they are still running is that the credit card number on file paying for hosting doesn't expire until next year somehow. Reddit is a red tide algae choking out all life in the ocean, nothing else gets to exist anymore.
It's like what happened to personal websites when things like Blogger, Tumblr and Facebook popped up.
It's hard to beat something that is easy to set up and pays for hosting but still let's you control moderation. It's a no brainer.
Managing your own domain where users post content is a minefield of problems these days even if you didn't mind the cost of running it.
Something like this might also explain the move to things like Discord over IRC.
This site is essentially 'orange reddit', they just need to add sub-HNs or tagging or something and it'd be ready for an influx of reddit refugees. Not that any of really want it, but it's possible.
You don't want to end up banned from a movies forum because you also participate in a political forum. Federation solves that problem because you can use separate accounts without either forum knowing that you also use the other.
Honestly, it's strange to me how hard people are trying to make distributed anything happen. Federation mostly solves a problem that real people don't have or care about.
IMO, something federation is very good at is solving one slow-moving problem - enshittification of social platforms. It's not immune, of course, but an Elon Musk-style takeover is much harder with Mastodon than Twitter, and it would be hard to run it into the ground in other ways because the platforms are owned by different people and groups.
I would like to see a wikipedia-style system for Twitter/Reddit: open access data, non-profit.
They could monetize it much better while being less annoying.
Ultimately - Google is getting everything they want from Reddit with this deal without having to buy it outright.
Short of Reddit transforming to an entirely different product (difficult) - I'm not sure where the major growth opportunity is for it.
It'd be somewhat hilarious if google bought reddit just to archive it and shut it down.
Does this mean there will be a future where everyone is running their own crawler? I suppose.