> Do 20 experiments with a p<5% criterion, and it’s likely that one will be a false positive.
That would be true if p were the probability of null hypothesis being true given the data observed, but that’s not what it is.
That would be true if p were the probability of null hypothesis being true given the data observed, but that’s not what it is.
https://eurradiolexp.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s4174....
This is the sort of thing I used to do when I was younger, and looking back, the reason I did it was because I was basing my sense of self-worth in being smarter than other people. Ironically, this made me dumber, because I was less open to the possibility of being wrong and therefore was slower to learn. And, I found doing this made people dislike me.
I think you're interpreting that sentence as talking about one false positive out of 20 positives? Which would be a very incorrect statement.
But it says one false positive out of 20 experiments. That's a valid statement. (Though it does depend on the proportion of negatives you're getting.)