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Use the NYT Rent or Buy calculator. Most home made math don't account for the ton of fees/taxes/insurances and the time-value of money, and the exceptional returns of the SP500.

I have yet to find a single place that would have been worth it long term versus renting (Bay area, which is a VHCOL) while you do the correct math.

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The problem of your math is that you are assuming rentals are equal from one place to another as long as the price match. I can tell you that's not true. My old 3BR apartment in a very desirable school neighborhood went from $2K to $5K now. My old neighbor still paying that price because their kids are in the school. They are kicking themselves right now for not buying when the rate was lower. Now, they are desperate to buy anything in the area.

The rent or buy calculator from the NYT includes an expected rent increase over time:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/upshot/buy-rent-cal...

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