Comment by w1ntermute | Hacker News Reader

Comment by w1ntermute | Hacker News Reader

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> Microsoft is so rudderless and ill-directed now, and Apple is so large and in charge

Uhh, are you joking? In the past few years, Microsoft has shown the most direction in 2 decades. Windows, Windows Phone, and Xbox are all converging on the Metro UI (which is a true breath of fresh air), and Microsoft has finally stopped allowing big business to hold back innovation on Windows. Windows 8 dumps the Start Menu, and on ARM, you won't even be able to install any traditional "Windows" software - everything will have to be in Metro.

Windows 8 tablets are going to be usable for actual productivity, rather than the consumption-focused nature of the iPad. Tablets that can convert into laptops and vice versa are going to become popular in the corporate world in a way that iPads never will, due to their lack of native support for Office.

OTOH, there are a lot of people that have grown tired of iOS. It's been out for 5 years now, and little true innovation has taken place since the release of the original iPhone. Upgrades to the iPhone have mostly consisted of adding features that should have been present all along, such as a proper notifications system (which still has problems) and support for 3rd party apps (which should have been present from the beginning). You still can't have widgets on the home screen, and the chance of Apple adding some kind of split-screen view, like you can get in Metro, is extremely slim.

As for OS X, it's an absolute nightmare. The window manager is horrific, and things are only going to get worse as Apple starts restricting the installation of software from non-approved sources, all in the name of a more "beautiful" experience.

I have no interest in such a discussion in this thread, but no, clearly I'm not joking and that rhetorical intro has no place on HN.

Microsoft is a disaster currently, their navigation being "react to where Apple was two years ago". It is telling that every Microsoft defense extrapolates some fantastic future of what will be in the world of Microsoft, never using what actually is. But yes, I'm sure your imagination of a Windows 8 tablet is vastly superior to an actual real-world iPad.

Over the past 10 or so years Microsoft has been a behemoth moving glacially on whatever inertia it had left. Recently, it seems like the behemoth is starting to regain control of itself and is demonstrating independent movement.

Sure; they're nowhere near being as focused purposeful as Apple is, but you can no longer say they are truly stuck in their ways. Whether that will translate into something tangible is another question, but it's hard to deny that something fundamental isn't changing at Microsoft.

Heck, I can't even honestly diss people's Windows mobile phones anymore, and that's nothing to sneeze at.

Over the past 10 or so years Microsoft has been a behemoth moving glacially on whatever inertia it had left

They completely overhauled Office. They've built wholesale online experiences, cloud services, and have purchased and entered new markets. They took the gaming market and owned it. They continued to make incredible progress with their development tools and runtimes/platforms.

The only difference this time is that they're risking it all because they're so afraid of Apple. They are essentially betting both their gaming and desktop experiences to desperately try to claw back in the smartphone industries. It is an incredible gambit that I think will prove to be a profound failure, but I think it's incorrect to see that as progress, any more than a salaryman betting it all on Red.

> They completely overhauled Office Overhauling the Office UI is pretty much inertia; they seem to keep fiddling with it and honestly I think I'd prefer that they just left it alone.

>They took the gaming market and owned it. Xbox360 is a distant second to Wii and only a nose ahead of PS3 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Console_wars#Worldwide_sales_fi...). While it's certainly done better than its predecessor, I think describing it as "owning" is a bit of an exaggeration.

> Microsoft is a walking disaster currently.

The problem is perspective. The types of people that spend time on HN don't spend time in the real world, where the current state of affairs is very different from what we think it is. Apple gets a lot of hype, and no doubt the iPhone is very successful (because it was a new type of product), but the iPad is no more than than a glorified toy. Once Windows 8 tablets are released and become commonplace, the iPad will stand no chance. The ability to use the same device for casual consumption and for productivity cannot be understated. Try getting out of San Fran for a few days, and you'll start to understand what I'm talking about. There was a similar issue with Android a few years ago, but it seems even the most hardcore iOS fanboys (such as Marco Arment) have finally gotten on the Android train.

And don't forget about the TV. The iTV simply will not sell, because people are not going to throw out their existing TVs just so they can get the latest shiny toy from Cupertino. OTOH, MS has huge market- and mind-share in the form of the Xbox 360 (which has been the best-selling console for more than a year). You can already watch Netflix and HBO GO on it, and Amazon Instant support has just been added. Kinect has proven extremely successful, and with Project Glass, all kinds of new mashups are going to become realizable.

> I'm sure your imagination of a Windows 8 tablet is vastly superior to an actual real-world iPad.

Have you been living under a rock? Windows 8 is coming out this October. Several consumer previews have already been released, and hardware has been demoed. Windows 8 tablets are much more of a real entity than you seem to think.

> the iPad is no more than than a glorified toy.

Not true. I use my iPad every day. My use varies from maybe 30 minutes of email to a good few hours. On my iPad I write, I organise my day, I handle notes and document recipes for things I cook. I deliberately try to keep it a personal rather than business device but I still use it for work email, calendaring and a few bits and pieces (mostly notes). I read incessantly on the iPad and it's my primary source of daily news.

> Once Windows 8 tablets are released and become commonplace, the iPad will stand no chance.

You're betting on an unestablished fractured software experience against the main market leader? I can understand Windows 8 standing a chance against Blackberry, against WebOS and maybe against pre-ICS Android but it will take a long time for Windows 8 to catch up with Android if it blows Android out of the water. Once it's managed to get that far there has to be something seriously wrong with iOS for it to overtake. Also if you're planning on betting on Office to see you through, hate to be the one to burst your bubble but Office has been available for the iPad for months, and the iPad's had office-compatible document readers/writers that are good enough for simple documents for years.

> The iTV simply will not sell

You are right, but this is because the iTV does not exist for sale. Apple haven't announced it. There is no iTV product.

> Have you been living under a rock?

There really is no need for this type of thing on HN.

> Windows 8 is coming out this October. Several consumer previews have already been released, and hardware has been demoed. Windows 8 tablets are much more of a real entity than you seem to think.

Can I buy a Windows 8 table now? No. Can I evaluate a consumer preview version of Windows 8 on an iPad? Yes. So in a way you're right, but given that the only real entities are the wrong devices running a prototype it's not fair to compare. However, having used the consumer preview in Parallels I have to say I'm not looking forward to metro on the desktop, but on the tablet it might work well.

> The types of people that spend time on HN don't spend time in the real world, where the current state of affairs is very different from what we think it is. Apple gets a lot of hype, and no doubt the iPhone is very successful (because it was a new type of product), but the iPad is no more than than a glorified toy.

This is quite the non-sequitur. Apple products are successful precisely because they appeal to people in the real world. Your comment about the iPad being a toy is a timeless refrain that has been leveled against every single Apple product since the original Macintosh. That time, they lost to Microsoft because A) the Mac was way too expensive, B) the ecosystem was too small, and only by the standardization of the PC was a viable ecosystem able to emerge and C) Adoption was driven by businesses who purchase by checklists rather than by personal appeal. These same downsides no longer exist, and the iPad launch is one of the most successful new products in the history of the world.

Probably most on HN are hoping for MS to hit a home run with Windows 8 if for no other reason than to foster competition and innovation. But the other thing you have to realize is that Microsoft's "no compromises" approach is insanely difficult to pull off. It's much harder than what Apple has done, and the risk of creating a confusing product that does not resonate with customers is incredibly high.

If you think all of a sudden iPads are going to stop selling when windows 8 tablets come out you must have been the one living under a rock. People don't go out and buy iPads because they want tablet computers. They go out and buy iPads because they want iPads. They want the app store, they want the integration with their computers and iTunes and their phones.

Windows 8 tablets will sell, but not to the same demographic.

As for Xbox vs a TV made by apple, you'll be wrong again, mark my words. Things that come out of cupertino sell. Project Glass sounds like a response to Airplay to me.

Overall, you're trolling because you're a microsoft fan.

So what you're saying is that the 350m iOS devices sold and the 400m credit card holding accounts Apple has and the record breaking revenues - that's all going to go by the wayside when Microsoft release a version of Windows Phone OS where you can alt-tab into a legacy mode version of Windows 7? Perspective indeed.

> iPad is no more than than a glorified toy.

If you think this is the case, you really don't get it. You may as well be living under a rock.

Windows 8 is going to go over like a fart at the opera. It's Vista all over again. They're pissing off developers and consumers at the same time. They really don't know how to pick their battles.

> And don't forget about the TV. The iTV simply will not sell, because people are not going to throw out their existing TVs just so they can get the latest shiny toy from Cupertino.

There isn't any value to be had in arguing that Apple has designed a terrible product that has no reason to exist when it does not, in fact, exist. When and if Apple releases a TV product other than the current Apple TV, I'm sure it will be fascinating to see what form it takes and whether or not it manages to capture any meaningful marketshare. Until then, you're needlessly attacking a strawman based purely on rumors and hearsay.

Units sold:

- Xbox 360: 67.2 million (released 2005)

- iPad: 67.1 million (released 2010)

What's even more worrying for Microsoft is that the iPad costs at least twice as much and was never sold at a loss.

If I was working on the development team for the next generation Xbox I would be wearing diapers to work.

When you take out the expensive high-DPI touch-screen and the expensive battery, you're basically left with an AppleTV. Those sell for about third of the price of the current generation of the Xbox. If the next generation AppleTV had a nice Bluetooth controller and installable apps, it's very bad news for both Microsoft and Sony.

>but the iPad is no more than than a glorified toy.

>Have you been living under a rock?

No, but it seems you have.

If I've said it before I've said it 1,000 times: Just because it doesn't fit your use case doesn't mean it doesn't fit that of others.

People said that Macs were glorified toys until Windows made GUIs commonplace. I don't know what the future holds but I'm pretty convinced that it is not a hybrid OS like Windows 8.

Good trolling, almost got me.

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