To me, the main issue is that many preferred softwares are not offered on Linux because of its small market share. The market share doesn't grow because preferred softwares aren't there. It's a circular problem.
That issue is improving all the time though as new softwares tend to target Linux natively (ex. Discord, Zoom, Slack). Furthermore, the compatibility layers are getting better for non-native programs (ex. Steam deck).
I really don't see a universe where Linux stops taking over the world, including the desktop. Adobe and Excel probably can't hold Windows up forever.
And for zoom, in addition to asking you to select your 'linux type,' has this little gem: "Zoom's rpm packages are signed with a GPG key. Please run "rpm --import package-signing-key.pub" to import the key in case package management utility asks for a missing public key" - though I guess probably the auto-installer thing would run when you opened a zoom link and skip all that. I doubt it's the only time a linux user is assumed to know what a terminal is or expected to know how to use it.
On the other hand - for linux - WSL is pretty cool. That's definitely a lot of linux on a lot of people's desktops, whether or not they use it!
All hail the year of the linux desktop!
You've been able to do both on Windows and macOS for other a decade now without touching a terminal.
or repair a broken install etc
Eventually things get weird, you have to drop into the command line to sort it out.
Normal people have other interests, they don't want to invest 4 hours into figuring out what why their Bluetooth isn't working.
The vast majority of folks won't even want to install a new OS.
This isn't too much different from how a lot of people use Windows and Mac, many wil have their kids figure out how to setup an application for them. It depends, of course. A lot of professional apps just don't have suitable equivalents for Linux and WINE doesn't do it for them.
She doesn't play video games or need much space. An M2 MacBook Air is 800$. If anything goes wrong, just take it to the Apple store. Even out of warranty if it's something simple like you broke a setting, they'll fix it for you.
It'll be much easier to just buy a Mac. I personally don't want to buy a new Mac because I want to have a 4 TB SSD and to get that in a MacBook you have to spend between 3k and 4k. Vs being able to upgrade a cheaper Windows laptop for 200$.
I personally dual boot Linux Mint and Windows. Linux is much better for getting things done.
When you think about its main competition it's a little silly to keep framing it this way, but again, it's extremely effective so it doesn't really matter if it's right.