https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kramatorsk_railway_station_att...
overall i prefer any mode of transport that is not being shot at
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RMS_Lusitania
Funny anecdote, my first air travel was in an Mi-8 as a 6 year old being airlifted out of a war zone
Flight 17 was shot down with a Buk missile. Wikipedia says 150 lbs. warhead.
Flight 655 was shot down with 2 SM-2MR missiles. Wikipedia is mum about warhead weight...but the missiles themselves would be over 3,000 lbs. (combined).
Vs. the helicopter was shot down with a 24 lbs. missile, with a 2.6 lbs. warhead.
One extremely clear lesson from WWII was that hitting a fixed-wing aircraft was very different from shooting it down. Size mattered. Once the combatants realized that, they replaced their start-of-war "you might get a hit in just the right spot" pea shooters with the heaviest AA weapons that they could use.
Either of these are such fringe scenarios, it doesn't make sense to judge either whole class of aircraft by this type of incident.
Yes, it not only increases the barrier to entry for attackers but airlines can install some defenses against MANPADS since they're easier to counteract than more advanced missiles. Some Israeli companies have developed and certified flare based anti-MANPADS systems like Flight Guard and laser based ones like C-MUSIC, though I don't think airlines have widely deployed them yet.
Once they're at cruising altitude, man portable AA can't bring them down.
Any consideration like this is completely washed out by practical/economic considerations; how much money can you make operating an airline with either kind of aircraft, and what kind of capabilities do they provide? This is why fixed wing aircraft are almost always better, except when the particular capabilities of helicopters invoke their use.
Look at the next generation of "helicopters" for the US military and their justifications for such.
Shooting down any aircraft with a rocket is likely to take anything down. Planes can handle damage much better from what I understand.
Now anti-aircraft weapons explode at a very specific distance and create a rapidly expanding ring of metal which slices the aircraft in two.
I do believe it is still true that planes can take more damage and still land safely compared to helicopters.
I can't find any good data to support it now though, maybe someone going by here will have a good link to data that shows real world data either way.
That makes my point even stronger (planes vs helicopters and their reach-ability from the ground).
I think our Media is a great disappointment.
We’ve spent 20 years in the Middle East, but the general public didn’t learn anything,
The idea of local culture is as uninformed as it was at the start of the war. As a result we will make the same mistake again.
The reporting about war in Ukraine is the same - basically a caricature of reality.
Sidenote: population of Texas and population of Siberia is about the same. Russia has a cruel culture, but their population is only 1/4 of EU’s.
Articles that ask probing questions are only now starting to appear, but are extremely rare. For example:
“Russia is producing artillery shells around three times faster than Ukraine's Western allies and for about a quarter of the cost” https://news.sky.com/story/russia-is-producing-artillery-she...
Rheinmetall intends to increase their annual production to 750k by 2025 and the US is aiming for 1 million annually by 2025. That's still much less than Russia and that's before considering they have access to the significant reserves and the factories in North Korea.
> Since August, Pyongyang has shipped about 6,700 containers to Russia, which could accommodate more than 3 million rounds of artillery shells or more than 500,000 rounds for multiple rocket launchers, according to the South Korean Defense Ministry.
https://news.sky.com/story/russia-is-producing-artillery-she...
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/07/asia/north-korea-artiller...
https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/02...
https://www.army.mil/article/274905/munitions_for_ukraine_ob...
Where the problem is, is Ukraine is trained on the Soviet war doctrine but are getting backing from NATO - but without all the airplanes NATO would use (and it isn't clear if they could train pilots/crew fast enough if given, but they haven't been given much) they need something to fight with.
Whether this is due to the impotence/utter incompetence of the Russian military or the inherent advantages of defensive fighting, I'm not sure Ukraine _can lose_ this war as long as NATO continues to the supply them with the tools.
Are we able to produce millions of air to ground missiles if we cannot produce enough simple artillery shells?
Can we replace losses of aircraft in a timely manner?
this argument would work if we could produce missiles in 1:1 parity with shells. However, for any reasonable ratio (say 1 missile for 10 shells) the situations with missiles is even worse! British government has ordered more NLAWs, and they will take 2 years to deliver.
> soviet doctrine underperfomed
That's exactly the scary part - Russian military is a mess, and even in these conditions our military industrial complex is barely holding it together. Mind you we spend 10x what Russia spends. NLAW costs more than a Tesla, takes longer to produce than a Tesla, and uses 90's technology. There is huge graft in the military complex!
Now what will happen if there is a conflict with an opponent that is competent, and is able to outproduce Russia 5 to 1? It will end in massive humiliation.
Hence why Russia has advanced very little since the initial invasion, even with the number of men they are willing to send to their death.
Ukraine has a problem taking their territory back as well, but for different reasons. They don't want to/can't send so many to their death, and have to rely on a large coalition of allies giving them weapons -- who have their own things to worry about domestically, so half-arse or delay support.
That phrase sounds about right.
Though my impression is that shell production is still a "meh, I guess we probably should do something..." priority in the great majority of NATO countries.
But yes, as pointed out I'm sure Russia places some more value on lives of skilled, well trained personnel than the average poorly trained grunt soldier, simply due to higher utility value.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukrain...
[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-troops-are-ordered-f...
[2] https://nypost.com/2024/01/23/news/moscows-meat-wave-tactic-...
not sure why everyone shits on Russian shovels, the RuZZian special forces recorded themselves how they train to fight close combat with shovels, a shovel is a weapon. Anyway the real quote was something like "weapons and shovels" but the Ruscists could only read the last part. The Zeds also claim they fight NATO, I say to all the Zeds please attack a NATO country then you can claim you fight NATO - because now you fight just your little brother that gas some old Western weapons and better intel, the difference is that Ukraine is not Chechnya so is harder to invade them, the drunk bear found a big enough adversary to break it's mouth.
Only imperialists bring historical claims to the discussion, for people in civilized countries is not a good argument that you claim you conquered and genocided some lands sometimes in the past, all the empires have fallen except the Russian one and there will be a time when the opressed people should get their freedom.
So dear comrade if Californians want to fight for their independence from an opressor I will support the people aand not the imperialistic coward old man that would want to genocide them again.
A lot of those people that fought for freedom in Chechnya later went on to do great things, such as join ISIS or become drug dealers in Austria.
> I am concerned about people not lands or what empire has right to what land.
I wonder, does the same right of self determination of nations apply to people wanting self determination in NATO-allied countries? To Ukraine? Or is there fine-print included in your concern?
I personally am for self determination, my country though is for respecting the UN laws and borders, Ruzzia is a GIANT hypocrite , when it is in their favor they want to split countries and grab lands like in Ukraine , when others want to split like Kosovo or Checnya then they apply the reverse and for some reason Kremlin and some Ruzzians are very invested in what Moldova is doing and they want to ensure that their self determination is exactly what Kremlin desires.
Actually when Western countries began recognizing the independence of Kosovo (independently of the UN) they warned that it will open up a pandora's box that will come back to bite them. But once again no one listened and kept studying Kremlinology. When Russia said that color revolutions on their borders are a concern no one listened and Nuland dealt free baked cookies in Kiev to Maidan protesters. These, by the way, turned out to be most expensive cookies in the world for Ukraine. Which is an important lesson: do not trust the US when it gives away things for free, even baked cookies
Don ot be extremly stupid like Ukraine and trust Ruzzia, if they would have entered EU and NATO with Poland and Romania they would be safe and rich, but they were too stupid to think Ruzzians are their brothers. This is 100% facts and no independent country should give a shit about some retarded old man wishes of imperialism, what a joke of a nation and you joke of an individual, we the Eastern Europe should give a shit of who we elect or what alliances we enter so we do not upset that nazis future invasion plans.
You never explain why no slavic country is sending help to Ruzzia? Serbia sells weapons to Ukraine and Belarus is a dictatorship so expaln please ? why slavs hate Ruzzia?
In the sense that Ukrainians then get to invade Kazakhstan around 2040 on behalf of Russia, and film Tik Tok videos about how nasty of fighters they are?
(This might as well happen)
Nonsense.
Reality disagrees , unless what we see is actually the best and brightest Ruzzia can find.
I would speculate the governments that rely on volunteers instead of conscripts for the military.
Save Putin from what?
By default, from now on Russia just retains the (formerly) Ukrainian lands it controls and integrates them in Russia. There's no deadline to that process, even if Russia stops gaining any land at all while still having to lose some number of people on the front line, basically indefinitely.
I can see that assertion in the Western media that Ukraine has an option to "not agree" to unfavorable terms, such as the ones voiced by Putin. The underlying assumption is that Putin has to disengage eventually, so the Ukraine can just wait it out. But unless some miracle saves the day for Ukraine, Russia is not getting out of these lands at all. After all, Russia is busy paving roads and issuing Russian citizenship in these areas.
Attitudes (and apathy) of the Russian population is the most astonishing thing about this whole conflict, and something that should be remembered when dealing with the country in the future, even after Putin.
I don't say that fighting this war in the current state was a good decision, far from it. It is also kind of throwing out good money after the bad. Still, I don't see Russians parting with whatever paltry gains they just had in exchange for a lot of their spilled blood.
Post communism was hard for everyone else too, but we (Eastern Europe) do not invent conspiracies about Israel and CIA to explain the corruption and incompetence of our leaders. For our case the politicians could blame the previous guys but in a dictatorship it is hard to blame the previous guys since it means blaming yourself so dictators have no choice then blame soem external force like Israel, CIA,LGBTQ, Satan.
That and, outside the EU, another troublemaker that is Serbia.
Russians do not see the existing borders and existing ex-Sovier political layout as fair or in any way beneficial to them.
And you agree with this Rusky? They do not like that other nations are not longer part of their empire ? Or that the countries East of Berlin are not under their evil influence ?
If yes, then I am sorry for you, maybe the next generation can find peace in the fact that empires and colonialism are history and could focus on their own country, they have resources they only need competent leaders and a better mentality.
Ukraines were dumb to not enter in NATO in EU with Poland, they were too pro Ruzzians now the stupidy costs them, look at Poland and look at Ukraine economy.
Just as Hungarians do not consider Hungarians from Uzhgorod an other nation; ditto Serbs do not consider Serbs from Respublika Srpska another different nation.
Russians actually care very little about what all of the remaining Eastern Europeans are up to. They aren't of much interest. Why do you need Warsaw if you can fly to Paris non-stop.
Ruzzians are stuck in the past, we no longer start wars to grab lands where some people that speak same language as us live. Not all people that spek Russian are Zeds and want to be part of Ruzzia.
The hypocricy is strong with Zeds since they are doing the opposite in Moldova, they promote a Zetarded idea that Moldova is a different language, that Moldovans are a different nation and that they need to keep their independence and borders (until Putin can invade).
As you can see Romania, Poland or Hungary are not even considering invading Ukraine to grab lands or people, we are living in a different age , we can help our nationals in Ukraine without killing.
But i bet you are aware that the Russian speaking Ukrainians are not the reason Putin grabbed Crimea or the other lands, it is all geo politics and inteligent Zeds admit it.
The only way people are going to respect some arrangement is if they believe it's good for them. Russians now believe "some voting" they had forced on them was catastrophic and "some treaties" are fundamentally unfair to them.
The geopolitics of Crimea are questionable. Black Sea Fleet turned out to be glass cannon of questionable utility. It's mostly about popular wishes and not about pragmatics. Before 2014, Putin was swimming in cash yet his approval ratings were Bidenesque.
So all the fuzz about "hell" izz mizzguided.
Sure Moscow or St Parkersburg and nice to live if you are a Zed or apolitical and maybe is great if you are an violent abuser since now is almost legal to beat your family if you ensure you do not break their bones. Just ensure your kids do not say soemthing bad about the army or KGB then you might have to pay.
Did you do your mandatory military service or you bribed you way out of it ?
Of course it is not comfortable to live in a country if you oppose the core value of its people. Just go to Ukraine if Zed makes you throw a fit. What holds you.
The latter.
That is deeply delusional. The Soviet Union and its satellites in Eastern Europe were held together only by force. 50 years of Russian domination only led to severe economic stagnation, lack of freedom and prosperity. Half a century of lost progress. Russia does not have an unfairly lost empire. Europeans are not your slaves. You can't even run your own country properly, yet you somehow believe that the Americans should hand you on a silver platter an empire to run. How does that make any sense?
Nothing is going to get better before you get rid of this imperialist delusion.
Even USSR as it existed after WWII was not of your own making, but an unfortunate side-effect of massive American military aid provided under the lend-lease agreement, which allowed to roll over European nations after Nazis had been defeated, and keep them hostage for half a century.
Germans managed to snap out of their delusions. 30 years after Nazis brought them to a similar total collapse, Germans did not have a Gestapo officer as their president, did not decorate official events with swastikas, did not reurgitate Nazi propaganda, did not complain how the entire world as wronged them, did not demand the US to cut ties with the UK and France, and did not wage genocidal wars against neighbors in an attempt to reach the 1942 extent of Germany. Instead, 30 years later, they had become the cornerstone of pan-European cooperation towards peace, liberty and prosperity.
If anything, the mistake made in 1990s was not making Russians face the consequences of their actions to the same extent Germans were forced to and thus Russians have not internalized that the 1990s were the result of their own actions. Are you not old enough to remember the depth of Soviet mismanagement and the ножки Буша that saved the country from starvation? But KGB and CPSU leaders were not hanged, apprachiks were not banned from public life, nuclear weapons were not taken away and the country was not demilitarized, Russian imperialism and Soviet ideology were not rooted out in favor of universal humanist values.
Ironically, it looks like those who do not learn from history are indeed doomed to repeat it. Putin has put the country on the path of reliving the 1990s, this time with much less international sympathy. Do they grow chicken in North Korea?
Actually, same for Kiev (add some Jewish minority in Odessa and Dnepropetrovsk). So you do not have anything to do with it.
The rest of advise is unwanted. It looks like Russia is not going to collapse in any of the modes you have described, and it's going to hold whatever lands it is holding, and that is how it's going to be.
That's not what actions say. Constant economic, political and social sabotage since the end of USSR, combined with hostile rhetorics from popular slogans like "The masters will be back!" to official demands to kick Eastern Europe out of NATO, leave little doubt. There is nothing people in Eastern Europe wouldn't like more than the luxury to focus on domestic issues and pretend that Russia doesn't exist at all, but Russian actions force us to divert considerable amount of resources towards ensuring that you stay where you are. Russia is the only reason why we need to have an army at all. Were Russia a normal country like Germany or Spain, we could disband the army tomorrow.
> It looks like Russia is not going to collapse in any of the modes you have described, and it's going to hold whatever lands it is holding, and that is how it's going to be.
Total delusion. Russian economy is already a dead man walking. The financial blockade keeps getting worse, and even the people from your central bank are saying: "Потому что [если] не будет нормальных расчетов за продукцию по внешнеэкономической деятельности, для нашей и экспортно, и импортно зависимой страны это просто все, это погибель". You can't run a modern country on Dogecoin or "import substitutions" hammered together by some Vanyas, that much is clear to everyone. This won't end in any other way than the previous time.
Likewise, Crimea is already lost. Every air defense system you set up there gets blown up by Ukrainians using weapons that cost a tiny fraction of their target. Without air defense, the remaining forces are sitting ducks. Russian ground forces will eventually either get destroyed, or pull out like they did from Kherson to save what's left. This is purely a matter of time. The navy has already abandoned Crimea.
Not to mention Eastern Ukraine. 10 000 Russians die every month just to keep the frontline where it is, and twice as many get wounded or crippled for life. It will only get worse as Soviet era stocks deplete and get replaced with older and older junk with every passing month while Ukraine keeps getting better and better new production as western arms factories gear up. At the start of the war, European factories were producing large caliber artillery ammo in batches of tens of thousands. This year they will produce over a million units, up to three million next year, going as far as it needs to go.
I wonder when will you finally wake up to the reality that Putin blundered the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to sell oil and gas while it still has any value, and use that flow of money to bring Russia to European level of prosperity. Gazprom is now in the red while Germany has produced 2/3 of all electricity this year from renewables. The window of opportunity is closing. Every Kinzhal blown up by Patriots somewhere in the skies over Ukraine costs as much as a modern schoolhouse, but instead of engaging in international trade and investing in schools that produce value for decades to come, you only get a loud bang. Putin is destroying your opportunity for a better life. Why do you choose to accept that?
Ahem. WTF?
As I've already said, Russians don't care and don't think in such terms. No slogans.
The rest of the logorrhea invokes "не говори гоп, пока не перепрыгнешь". Don't do the stuff you peddle.
That's a lie and you know it. Variations of it like "We can show it again!" (that is, rape our way to Berlin) are in very widespread use among the Russian public and represent exactly the way most Russians think. Revanchism is the cornerstone of Putin's Russia, and that is also clearly present in your constant complaining how Russia has been humiliated and unfairly treated, and how it is entitled to anything more than it currently has, while the truth is that western nations spent a lot of money to relieve the humanitarian disaster that came from your own long-term mismanagement that you now try to pin on the Americans. You are - without any shame - biting the hand that fed you.
Russians did indeed win World War Two as a part of victorious Allied coalition. The "raped their way to Berlin" is represents a completely undeserved slur. The German army did not consist of fertile women but of seasoned and well-armed German males who invaded Russia previously (under Meth as we've just learned) and they had to be killed first.
The Germany after the atrocities that they have done was at complete mercy of winners, who in their wisdom and kindness has chosen to spare it. We didn't have to.
The only way Russians may care about Eastern Europe is extinguishing the sources of such unpleasant noises.
It does not. The war memorial that Russians erected in central Berlin is still colloquially known as "the tomb of the unknown rapist". The number of people raped by Soviet forces is estimated between 1 and 2 million, among them many well-known people, such as the wife of Helmut Kohl, raped when she was 12. At least 100 000 people were raped in Berlin alone, aged "from 8 to 80", as one Russian war correspondent put it, and often died in the process due to blood loss, were murdered or committed suicide thereafter. Victims were not only German civilians, but also from Polish, Belarussian, Ukrainian and other nationalities who had been brought to Germany as slave labor. War correspondents like Vasily Grossman have recorded vivid descriptions of the gang rapes and other depravity; I believe it was Grossman who described a German village - whatever house he looked into, each had women on beds, dead, with dried pools of blood between legs.
And the typical response from Russians is that of yours: how they should be thankful that you didn't rape even more. You have the audacity to call it kindness.
And of course, anyone who dares to remind of this is making "unpleasant noises" and should be "extinguished". We can all see in Ukraine what that means. Murder, torture and systematic rape once again. A lot of elderly people in Europe are disturbed more than the rest by reports of Russian conduct in Ukraine because they remember it from their own youth. Despite their limited income, they are some of the most generous sponsors of aid to Ukraine.
No Russian would accuse their grand dad that has taken Berlin of anything, before walking in his shoes first. Walking to the Berlin obviously.
Around 2 millions of Russian civilians starved in Leningrad during the Nazi siege.
I'm honestly not sure which kind of a different response would one expect after murdering more than 20 million Soviet citizens in the four years before that. You do not want to ever bring this topic into conversation because you're going to look worse than the side you are accusing. "We said we are sorry" is not good enough, just like the post-Soviet borders. I believe Germans should start going around whacking annoying Eastern Europeans over the head when they try to dig out this hideous mass grave again. Extremely annoying behavior.
Still, our ancestors had to kill all of armed to the teeth German males first, and that was no small feat, that we are still proud of; and obviously they were 100% righteous in doing so. Then all the Eastern Europeans who we "set free" did their little ethnic cleansing against Germans. I've heard Czech has expelled circa 300,000 Germans, killing several tens of thousands in the process. Ditto Poland.
Ah yes, FOUR years, 1941-1945. Because the year 1939, when you signed a secret pact with Hitler dividing Europe, jointly invaded Poland and even held a joint military parade celebrating victory over Poland, didn't exist. Nor did 1940, when you invaded the Baltics and Romania, and supplied oil and other key materials in defiance of economic blockade to the Nazi war machine as German bombers were flying sorties over London, and your own were bombing Helsinki, with "bread baskets for starving Finns" as the propaganda put it (Finns invented the Molotov cocktail as a drink to go with that generous gesture). None of this happened. The war started in June 1941, right.
But no. The war didn't start for Europe in 1941 nor did it for Russians. Germans and Russians were the two main instigators of the Second World War and in cooperation invaded one country in Europe after another in the first two years of the war until there was no-one left but the two of them and the stage was set for the endgame.
Germans have recognized their responsibility and devoted to building a better Europe. Russia, let me check the news feed... another 5 civilians killed, 53 injured in today's drone and missile strike in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. And god knows how many died on the frontlines defending their country, and in torture chambers on occupied territories.
There is no need to speak about digging out old graves when you are producing new ones every day.
I didn't sign anything. And before that, Germany and Poland has jointly invaded Czechoslovakia and divided it between themselves. It was wild; still I don't understand why I would feel responsible for any of these events in history.
> Germans and Russians were the two main instigators of the Second World War
That is, like, just your opinion, man. I have a different one. We can agree to disagree here. Even if was just Germany and the Soviet Union fighting each other, the point about not wishing to dig up that mass grave persists. Most of the mutilated corpses there are, tragically, Russian.
> Germans have recognized their responsibility and devoted to building a better Europe
Great for them, but as a Russian I saw nothing useful coming from it my way. So why would I care.
> Russia, let me check the news feed... another 5 civilians killed, 53 injured on today's drone and missile strike in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro
So go sign some peace treaty with Putin, he has some fresh terms for it. People in Dnepropetrovsk and Kiev stop dying, but so are people in Donetsk and Belgorod and Sevastopol. After several deadly Ukraine's attacks against civilian targets in Russia, I grew tolerance to Ukrainian losses. I genuinely don't care mourning somebody other's dead when I have enough of my own.
Just don't expect us to cede any lands we paid in blood. We used to be that stupid, but I hope not anymore.
> Great for them, but as a Russian I saw nothing useful coming from it my way. So why would I care.
> After several deadly Ukraine's attacks against civilian targets in Russia, I grew tolerance to Ukrainian losses
Excellent example of Russian mentality on full display. Don't understand, don't care, don't feel responsible.
This is how you differ from Germans. They have faced their past and developed a deeply internalized sense of duty not to repeat the past mistakes. They are a key contributor to the European Union, a major platform for peaceful cooperation in Europe and beyond. Despite long and violent history, they have mended relations with France and Poland and many others who have seen Germans as enemies for centuries. Since the 1960s, Germans have pursued the policy of Wandel durch Handel, hoping to bring positive change through mutually beneficial trade, including with Russia. They have provided aid and investments in billions and billions, and if anything has not reached you, then that's because Putin chose to spend the money earned through trade on missiles killing people in Ukraine instead of building better schools in Russia.
Your attitude towards the victims of the latest war is particularly vile. The only reason why anyone is dying, including Russian civilians caught in the crossfire, is because Russia started the war for which people like you keep inventing excuses out of imperialistic delusions and entitlement.
This is especially revealing:
> Just don't expect us to cede any lands we paid in blood. We used to be that stupid, but I hope not anymore.
You "pay in blood" only because you invaded another country, murdered and continue to murder people defending their homes and loved ones as you try to steal their property. There is nothing smart about thievery and murder. Germans are smart. They found a way to have a influence on the world without all that. You will continue to pay in blood until you leave Ukraine alone because that is fair and just.
Since it excludes Russia from the day one I also care very little, and for me that's a liability not a virtue.
> The only reason why anyone is dying, including Russian civilians caught in the crossfire, is because Russia started the war
Again, that's only your opinion with which I disagree. There's Crimea and LPR/DPR and Ukraine has started a civil war against LPR/DPR. They should've thought twice about that.
> you invaded another country, murdered and continue to murder people defending their homes
They should go to Putin and sign some ceasefire or peace treaty with him if they don't like it. Why come to me. I am not Putin and I didn't even vote for him.
And yet - when someone corners you on the internet you run to stand behind him, like a big papa.
So in that sense, you very much are "voting" for him.
It was stupid for Ukraine to skip negotiations in 2014, it was stupid for them doing three coup attempts in 15 years, but it was also stupid for Putin to do what he did in 2022. That's past now, though, that is immutable, and the future can only be fixed by negotiations.
Whoever the Russian deep state manages to run up the flagpole after Putin croaks -- we know you'll still be here.
Echoing his latest catchphrases, defending his every move.
However, I'm also no big fun of the state of Ukraine, but I'm quite fond of Crimea. Many Ukrainian cities as well, but Crimea in particular.
So, as Lenin has said, "one can't live in a society and be free of that society".
Very fond, I'm sure.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_German_ultimatum_to_Lithu...
Many Ukrainian cities as well
And the German soldiers were always so fond of Paris.
The lands the USSR has occupied in 1939 are mostly Russian Empire lands, so USSR never really agreed to part with those. Neither was Germany committed to parting with its German Empire lands. You may argue they have both "signed something", right.
If you praise Germany for changing its strategy after 1945 to avert future wars, at the same time you should blame the US world order for failing to part with strategy which got them WWII after WWI, when dealing with post-Soviet Russia.
As they should have noticed by that moment, you do not get into stable, reciprocital relationship with someone you've either raped into signing a piece of paper or got them to sign for a $2.99 can of food or starve. I believe Soviet troops in 1945 Berlin did not have such expectations, but to my surprise, US and its thralls still do.
There is nothing in the key treaties of the EU excluding Russian membership, provided that it meets the criteria, of which the rule of law and the respect for human rights are the largest concerns. Back when Gorbachev was seeking "Common European Home" with the EEC, European countries were quite open to the idea. Certainly no less than they were open to a good working relationship with Germany only five years after their citizens had been saved from concentration camps. In Central and Eastern Europe, everyone who set European integration as their goal reached it in 10-15 years, and it has been an incredible success for everyone involved.
But I believe we once already discussed that feeling of empowerment from being able to kill people across the world with impunity is more attractive to you than fishing quotas and other mundane things that the EU deals with most of the time to improve the lives of its citizens day by day.
> Again, that's only your opinion with which I disagree. There's Crimea and LPR/DPR and Ukraine has started a civil war against LPR/DPR.
There was no civil war in Ukraine. LPR/DPR are fiction created by Russia to mask their invasion. And this is not my opinion, but facts established by the European Court of Human Rights. A few years ago they had a case brought against Russia by countries whose citizens perished in the shot-down MH17 airliner. Russian representatives tried to spin the old lies about "separatists" in Ukraine being at fault (and thus absolving Russia of all responsibility), but the court found no facts to support that there had been any separatism worth mentioning in Ukraine. Those people were, from the start, like Girkin from Russian secret services, recruits from local criminal gangs working for them, or from the armed forces of Russia without proper insignia, all acting under Russian military command.
Pay attention to the reverse side of the Russian campaign medal awarded to the participants of the invasion of Crimea: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medal_%22For_the_Return_of_Cri... The start of the campaign is incribed as 20 February 2014. That was months before LNR/DNR "declared independence", and even predates Yanukovych running away from the country (the event gopniks call "CIA coup" that started it all).
The truth is that Russia invaded Crimea as Ukraine was in internal turmoil, and then made special operatives cosplay separatists in Donbas and used that as an excuse to invade Eastern Ukraine.
> They should go to Putin and sign some ceasefire or peace treaty with him if they don't like it.
All offers Putin has made so far can be summed up as "let me keep what I've stolen, and add a bit more". Anything less than a retreat from Ukraine is not a serious proposal. You are paying one Afghan war worth of killed every month for the stubborness to admit in the third year of the war that the three-day land grab has failed. The price is only going to rise as European arms factories ramp up production, and more of the fighting is carried over into Russia as restrictions on weapons get looser. The batch of fighter jets that the Netherlands signed over to Ukraine yesterday came without restrictions about their use over the skies of Russia.
> Why come to me. I am not Putin and I didn't even vote for him.
People like you are the reason why Putin has any impact in the world. Putin is not sitting behind a bench in a factory and milling artillery shells that reduce Ukrainian cities to rubble as if a nuclear weapon had gone off. He is not programming Ukrainian power plants into missile guidance systems to make Ukrainian cities unlivable. He is not the one sitting in a jet and dropping bombs on Ukraine. He is not the one torturing minors in cells fitted for children. He is not the one raping, murdering and stealing across Ukraine. Without millions of people acting as his willing executioners, he would be a rambling maniac without any influence on the world.
By choosing to adopt his bunker mentality and spread his lies, you have a part in this too.
Circling back to the beginning, you may disagree with everything, but the way Russians treat Ukrainians in words and actions alike shapes how you will be treated in return. By the way things are going, you will have many more opportunities to complain about humiliations.
Why does LPR/DPR militia fight the Ukrainian army then, from 2014 onwards? Because they totally do. They are among the most motivated troops.
> Anything less than a retreat from Ukraine is not a serious proposal
Then more Ukrainians will die "defending their homes", as well as Russians of course. And have a good day.
> Without millions of people acting as his willing executioners
They just really don't like the state of Ukraine (and post-Soviet borders), but at the same time want Russia to win the war. It's simple.
There never was such a thing. The war in the east started on 12 April 2014, when Russian commandos led by Igor Girkin from FSB seized government buildings in Sloviansk. The ECHR did not find any evidence of a militia in Ukraine that wasn't manned, supplied and controlled by Russian armed forces. But you cannot admit any of this, because without the origin-myth of civil war in Ukraine, the whole justification for the invasion would collapse.
> Then more Ukrainians will die "defending their homes", as well as Russians of course.
That's the price many nations in Europe have had to pay for their freedom. It is not too common to see people throw away their freedom and willingly become serfs like Russians have under Putin. There is no greater indictment of modern Russia than the the fact that Ukrainians choose to go through this hell if it saves them from ending up with the kind of life you have.
> They just really don't like the state of Ukraine (and post-Soviet borders), but at the same time want Russia to win the war. It's simple.
Indeed. Simply a Russian version of Nazism. Delusional ideas about rearranging the world put forward by a paranoid dictator, with population that out of deep inferiority complex willingly believes his soothing lies and follows him blindly, united under Z-swastika, in murdering peaceful people across Europe by hundreds of thousands while erasing entire cities from existence. And then you wonder why no-one respects you and why Russia is increasingly seen as a curse on this world.
DPR was already proclaimed by then, and I believe most of these comandos were on Ukrainian passports ATM.
> That's the price many nations in Europe have had to pay for their freedom
Then why all the whining? I don't shed so much tears and complain to UN when opening my wallet.
> Delusional ideas about rearranging the world
No - that's just siding with your country and your people.
> why no-one respects you
Frankly, we don't care, because we do not respect you either anymore. And that one will be much harder to undo.
Ukrainian citizenship doesn't prevent one from serving Russian interests. As the ECHR concluded after reviewing facts, there is no reason to consider the people who started the war in Eastern Ukraine as distinct from Russian armed forces. Russian government brought together the people, equipped them, gave them goals to fulfill, and supported them in any way they could. Likewise, the Freedom of Russia Legion is without any doubt a part of Ukrainian armed forces despite consisting mainly of defected Russians.
> Then why all the whining?
It's you and your Führer who are constantly whining how everyone humiliates and deceives you. Just a few days ago, he came up with a new sob story - that the assault on Kyiv failed not because of successful counterattacks at Hostomel and Irpin, but because western countries deceived Russia into a ceasefire that they dutifully followed. How can you listen to that and not think "what a moron"?
> No - that's just siding with your country and your people.
That's what Nazis and their supporters thought too when they rallied around Hitler. Hitler didn't act in Germany's best interests and nor does Putin act in Russia's best interests. The longer it takes you to recognize it, the deeper hole you will have to crawl out from. It's great irony that revenge has put you on track of repeating the 1990s.
Other than that, molon labe.
No, I am not speaking about the mythical 1990s as they exist in the mass conscious in the present day, warped by a huge dose of Soviet nostalgia. I am speaking about the 1990s that people actually lived through. Hyperinflation, shortages, poverty, crime. Breakdown of social order. Life's savings losing value almost overnight. Wages going unpaid for months and months. Abandoned kids sniffing glue and no-one caring. Few people had the luxury to care about issues beyond their immediate survival. Knew a family that had collected enough money for a house. Money lost value in such a short time that they managed to get only an ugly floor lamp by the time reality hit them. Nobody gave a shit where borders ran or if they even existed.
Massive spending on completely non-productive activities like the war against Ukraine while the world pivots away from you in disgust is a solid strategy for reaching such socio-economic deterioration again.
And it's important to stress that the 1990s were not seen as separate chapter at the time, but as the natural endgame of USSR's deep internal rot and failure to provide even bare sustenance to its population. Somehow you managed to run a resource-rich country into the ground during peacetime, and dragged down with you the European nations that you had enslaved during the WWII. And yet, for some reason, you think you've suffered a great injustice and still deserve an empire. Why? You can't run a normal country.
I can see that happening easily if Putin loses his war, and all of the options I've ever saw coming from the West drooling with saliva converge to Russia losing.
As Sukhov once said, "I'd prefer to suffer a bit".
> still deserve an empire.
Not sure about Putin, but I don't want one. A nation state would suffice. Crimea is populated by Russians. Everybody speaks Russian in Lugansk, Donetsk and Mariupol. I don't see any utility in a border which separates them from the rest of Russia, or any excuse for it to be where it is. I'm not against any borders at all, just these particular ones.
Putin lost the war a long time ago when the attack on Kyiv failed, Ukraine managed to maintain unified government and military command, and found allies. Countries representing the majority of the world economy are now behind Ukraine and that seals the deal for Russia as much as it did for Nazi Germany. Putin has no path to victory and cannot retreat for domestic reasons. The plan was apparently "3 days to Kyiv" and Plan B does not seem to exist. He is stuck as Ukraine is grinding away the huge inheritance of USSR's weapons that make up the bulk of Russian army to this day. Again, great irony - in the end, it's Russia who is demilitarizing. Ukraine has destroyed over 8000 tanks. By most estimates, only 1100-1500 of old stock remain for refurbishment from graveyards. New production is 120-150 tanks per year. I guess that's why we didn't see a trace of the famous Brezhnev-era armadas on May 9th parade anymore. All the new tanks are gone and patched up rustbuckets from the 1960s would be nothing less than another humiliation.
> I don't see any utility in a border which separates them from the rest of Russia, or any excuse for it to be where it is.
I don't see any utility in a border which separates Finno-Ugric people in Russia from the rest of them in Europe, especially considering the abysmal state of human rights there. When can I expect the return of Karelia to Finland?
Karelians has never made dominant part of the population of what is now republic of Karelia. The problem here is that the name Karelia comes first and Karelians are an ethnicity of people who also happen to live in Karelia alongside larger nations. Which, ironically, included a lot of Finns and even Swedes before the Revolution.
Currently, ethnic Karelians make up 6% of the population of the republic. So the fact they've got a republic with some support for local culture shows the deep left-leaning woke organization of Russian Federation. But that's the most what they can ever have with 6%.
Meanwhile, Crimea was what, 80% Russian? Donbass was between 60% and 95% Russian speaking depending on the metrics?
In short, you could keep these lands
Nor did Russians form the majority in Donetsk or Luhansk or Mariupol before the war, yet you have no issue making territorial claims. This is just another invented excuse. Why was Kherson oblast officially annexed by Russia when barely 14% of Kherson's population identifies as Russian? Who invited you?
The part that Russia now holds is essentially an empty steppe with, IDK, perhaps ~150k population in total and most of its territory evacuated.
And thus crumbles another excuse.
> The part that Russia now holds is essentially an empty steppe with, IDK, perhaps ~150k population in total and most of its territory evacuated.
A great example of the kind of misery Russia brings to the world. Shit country with trash people.
Russia wants a land bridge towards its 2 million strong Crimea and that's why Genichensk is now a seat of government of Kherson oblast of Russian federation.
You should hear one day what Russians think about countries such as Latvia or Poland.
A man in Finland can take a bike and ride through Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czechia and Austria to the southern tip of Italy, then head west to visit the westernmost point of Europe in Portugal, and return home following the Atlantic coast through Spain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark and Sweden without being distrubed, stopped or questioned even once. No-one will ask who he is and what he carries in his pockets. He does not have to apply for visas, he does not have to get permits nor go through any ID checks. And not only can he bike through Europe, but he can also move to any place for work, study or leisure as if he was moving to another town in Finland. The Schengen agreement provides undisturbed travel across Europe, and European Union's four fundamental freedoms guarantee the unrestricted movement of people, goods, capital and services. Countless academic, business, cultural and other kinds of relations stand on these foundations. Foreigners from other European countries can even vote at local elections if they are permanent residents.
Russians never had anything comparable, nor will have anytime soon no matter how many people you sacrifice, because your Führer with his "land bridges" is an uneducated moron who doesn't understand how the world of the 21st century works. He has failed to take advantage of the opportunities it offers. He is a Soviet dinosaur who has literally never experienced any of it. Never took a free semester in another country under the Erasmus program, never held Eurail pass or backpacked through Europe as if national borders didn't exist.
The 30-something countries in Europe have achieved through peaceful cooperation much more than Russians ever had through violence, at any point in time.
I find it incredible how you take the stance that "In the 1990s, we were weak and stupid, but now we're smart and strong!" while still acting like total morons, incapable of developing past the ridiculously obsolete 19th century gunboat diplomacy that keeps the entire country retarded. Only complete losers talk about "land bridges" in 2024. Winners talk about AI, chipset designs, clean energy, electric vehicles and reusable rockets, and not of the kind that blow cancer-stricken children into tiny pieces as they rain down on hospitals.
For countries that are run by smart people who are good at diplomacy, national borders lost any real meaning a long time ago.
Russians had something comparable in 1990.
You could take a bike from St. Petersburg through Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, then enter Belarus, go over Ukraine, back into RSFSR, then bike through Sochi, Abkhazia AR, Georgia and into Armenia. Return home biking through Karabakh AR, Baku, Dagestan ASSR, and beyond.
Now you may feel the pain.
Russia had internal-ID based border crossing arrangement with Ukraine up and into 2014, but Ukraine circa 2000 has started talking about how it will cancel that arrangement and require passports and introduce visas and will banish Black Sea Fleet from Crimea, and did three coups against reasonably pro-Russian governments in Ukraine of various success, and now we have zero trust in such arrangements. See also: COVID. The only lands where you may be confident you are able to roam is one under that Russian tricolor flag.
So Russians will absolutely forfeit any kind of agreements and goodwill for having more land, because land is something definite and agreements can be canceled at any moment by the other party without further notice.
There were hopes that CIS will be EU-like commonwealth with USSR-like integration between parties without USSR-like command structure, but it quickly turned sour. Which showed to us the paramount importance of borders and where they're drawn.
> Never took a free semester in another country under the Erasmus program, never held Eurail pass or backpacked through Europe as if national borders didn't exist
Yeah, that is basic Russian experience of not having access to all that stuff. It does definitely highlight the idea that state borders are important, the access to the stuff beyond these borders is complicated and may be denied, so it totally makes sense to have as much useful stuff as possible within your own borders. States 101.
Russians did not care about borders that much in 1990 when you could cross any of these on your bike without noticing, but they definitely started to care a lot about borders in 1995 when they discovered that customs and border guards has now sprang up and the borders are major PITA. They have also started questioning why exactly these borders were drawn in the way they were.
Who are you trying to fool? The USSR had internal passport system and residency permits known as propiskas. People went as far as arranging fake marriages to get propiskas into major cities and settle there. Employers could only hire people with a valid propiska. Living without a valid propiska was a criminal offence. People were essentially serfs tied to the address in their propiska.
In 1990, as Soviet authorities were desperately looking for ways to reform the crumbling country, the Committee for Constitutional Supervision of the USSR had this to say about the system:
The Constitutional Supervision Committee of the USSR, having considered on its own initiative the issue of compliance of the legislation on registration with the provisions of the Constitution of the USSR, laws of the USSR and the international obligations of the USSR on human rights, found that the current provisions on registration significantly limit citizens' freedom of movement, choice of place of residence, work, education and exercise of other rights.
The introduction of restrictions on the rights of citizens to freedom of movement and choice of place of residence is associated with the establishment of rules that violate other fundamental rights of citizens. These rules include:
a) rules prohibiting the heads of enterprises, organizations and institutions from hiring persons who are not registered in the given locality;
b) rules prohibiting the admission to higher and secondary specialized educational institutions and vocational schools in Moscow and a number of other cities of non-resident citizens in a capacity greater than what they can be provided with hostels and living space from close relatives. These rules contradict the principle of equality of all citizens of the USSR in receiving education, enshrined in Articles 34 and 45 of the Constitution of the USSR and Article 4 of the Fundamentals of Legislation of the USSR and Union Republics on public education, as well as the principle of equal access to education recognized in international human rights instruments;
c) rules prohibiting the registration of spouses and members of their families in the living space of a spouse living in Moscow, Leningrad and Kyiv in a hostel, regardless of its nature, or as a temporary resident, or as a subtenant in the living space of another person. These rules, the application of which leads to long-term separation of families, contradict Article 53 of the Constitution of the USSR, Article 11 of the Fundamentals of Legislation of the USSR and Union Republics on Marriage and Family, as well as the relevant provisions of the International Human Rights Acts.
The system of propiskas was finally abolished in 1997 when the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation also found it in violation of human rights. And this is just about being able to freely move, work and study as a citizen inside your own country.
Visiting other countries, even puppets in the Eastern Bloc such as East Germany, was a total pipe dream that required official recommendation and characterization as a loyal commie from your place of employment and trade union, followed by KGB's border department digging through your personal history to ensure that you will not defect as soon as you can (and for that reason, families were not allowed to travel together). The entire process took months. And even then, KGB assigned their people into tour groups to keep an eye on Soviet citizens. During his time in East Germany, Putin was one of those people keeping a watch over Soviet tourists. For most people, this was irrelevant anyway, because the limited number of foreign travel permits went to those on the higher steps of the communist hierarchy and few people were able to leave the country even once in a lifetime.
As I said, you never had anything close to the cooperation Europe has established through peace and cooperation. You are so far behind that you don't even recognize how outdated everything you say sounds. You are living in the past.
Remember that I didn't mention visiting any other countries, just the USSR, which totally did not have these domestic borders that would prevent the bicycle trip you have described. Propiska does not come into equation since you did not mention applying for work and settling permanently.
I wonder if you got the messages that Russians mostly view these borders as a nuisance that they were raped into accepting.
> you never had anything close to the cooperation Europe has established through peace and cooperation
I don't deny it, but then again, so what? I never had anything close to many things. A space trip. A Rolls Royce. A helicopter tour. "Coooperation that Europe has established" as well.
But you know what I do, one Crimea that you can buy a train ticket and visit, with no border controls deciding whether you are entitled to do so this week or no.
You are choosing to go through another Afghan war every month, destroy the national economy, flush the last remnants of your reputation down the drain, and bring indescribable suffering to millions of people for something that you could get for free if you had smart people running the country.
There is no other way to describe it than a completely retarded behavior. The worst thing is that you cannot even imagine any alternatives to it. This is truly eye-opening for me. You come across like those dumbasses brainwashed by Nazism who committed suicide during the final days of the WWII because they couldn't imagine a future for Germany without the Third Reich.
At the same time they do have great impact on the lives of ex-USSR citizens. We deal with it. That's what we have to do and that's what we do.
> for something that you could get for free
I don't remember a single moment after 1991 when this was an option. I do remember that EU and USA had spent good amount of money and effort to undermine any attempts for Russian Federation to form such bonds with any of its neighbours, and to replace any Russian-sympathetic government of these countries. And now they say they want to further fracture Russia and set up more of these borders with more misery.
> The worst thing is that you cannot even imagine any alternatives to it.
I can easily imagine alternatives to it (I've obviously been to EU many times), I just see throughout my life that we are not admitted to any of these alternatives. We're not getting any of that stuff, not in the past and not in the future, so I would rather have Crimea. And Lugansk. And Mariupol. This is the reputation that we need now.
As for dumbass brainwashed yadda yadda, molon labe. Come and get it. The folks on the front line are seriously tired by now, but they have this precious experience and cohesion, so should any Eastern European chihuahuas show up there, you will be wasted good.
No, that is not true at all. If we count all the people who lived directly in the USSR and in the Eastern Bloc dictatorships under Russian control, then that's about 100 million people who have gained the same rights and opportunities as the French, Italians and other European nations enjoy. Impacted are only those who never chose to participate in European initiatives that have brought people so closely together. It was Russia's choice to stay out of them and thus it's strange to see complaints that you feel left out.
> I do remember that EU and USA had spent good amount of money and effort to undermine any attempts for Russian Federation to form such bonds with any of its neighbours, and to replace any Russian-sympathetic government of these countries.
I trust the recollections of people who were actually at the helm of Russia over yours, for I doubt you were even born then. As the minister of the foreign affairs of the Russian Federation 1990-1996, Andrei Kozyrev was the top man in charge of restoring Russia's relations with the world, and he tells a quite different story. In short, KGB hardliners refused to accept loss of their special privileges and fought back against opening Russia up to the world. They wanted a hermit kingdom that would serve as their personal piggy bank with them at the top. By hook and by crook, they took over the entire Russian government and turned it into a dictatorship led by low-level KGB apparatchik.
According to Kozyrev, Europe and the US can only be blamed - if at all - for not intervening strongly enough to keep Russia on track of becoming a modern country. They could've done more to support people who tried to steer Russia towards freedom, peace and prosperity, but ultimately it is up to Russians to take care of their garden.
Fast-forward 25 years, and we have Putin and his gang in palaces and on superyachts while you have "precious social cohesion" dying under American missiles on the potato fields of Ukraine. How can you not feel robbed and made a fool?
And like stereotypical abusers, to isolate and manipulate you, Putin constantly feeds you lies that everyone else is out to humiliate and mistreat you. You have internalized it to such extent that you not only believe it yourself, but try to convince others that it is true. It is not true and it never was.
The door to Europe was open to you. It was literally official policy in many parts of Europe. You only had to take a step. At the critical point in history, you failed to make the right decision and take advantage of the opportunity.
You can spin coping stories about Crimea all you want if they comfort you and help to forget this gigantic blunder, but with a navy that ran away to avoid being wiped out, an army whose HQs and staging areas get blown up so often that news have stopped reporting them, and an air force that is unable to fly over Crimea without being shot down, the chances of victory over Ukraine look slimmer than ever. You aren't the first Nazis to invade Crimea and hold it for a while, with an illusion that it will last forever.
That's not true, Russian Federation did "participate in European initiatives"
> refused to accept loss of their special privileges and fought back against opening Russia up to the world
And how would that look like? Russia was widely open up to the world up and until 2014. It's more open to the world today that you care to admit.
It would be interesting to read Kozyrev directly if you've got a link, though.
> done more to support people who tried to steer Russia towards freedom
How would that even look like!?
> The door to Europe was open to you
That's false, it was never open. Just take a look what Turkey is doing now. They've spent decades on reading EU's cucumber party regulations and now they've got semi-dictatorship and no longer admissible because they frankly gave up some time around 2015.
And Turkey is an easy case compared to Russia. It's in NATO, not as big, does not have its own nukes, etc, etc.
That was never an option.
> You only had to take a step.
How would that even look like!??
You're talking all the time about Russia refusing some simple steps and not opening enough, but absolutely sounds like these "it's not you it's me" excuses from the friend zone to any Russian. Russians are not stupid as to not being to tell a relationship from a friend zone.
EU is officially declaring that it now has the optimal size, perhaps even too big, but definitely only accepting small countries such as maybe Montenegro in the future. So that is no go from the day one. The path that you are confidently showing as available just does not exist and it never did. Russians didn't even expect it. But there should be some framework dealing with Russian existence on the edge of Europe, and such framework was notoriously absent. We didn't even have short trips visa waiver in 2010. So when 2014 come, there was no carrot that EU could threaten to take away, and Russians are famously imprevious to sticks.
So no Erasmus, and the only back packing option available is in the military camouflage.
Too late for that stuff, anyway. No go win that war that you can't shut up about being winning.
Nowhere near the level of those did who eventually joined the EU (or even EFTA). Even preparing for accession was a major effort that required incredible amount of work to harmonize legislation and actual practices with European standards. We had very little money at the time and severe shortage of people who understood these things. Everything from stock market rules to patient data protection at medical facilities needed a total overhaul. When comparing this with Russia at the same time, it is very clear that while the idea of European integration was floated from time to time, it was never a serious goal with a full national effort behind it. This is what I meant when I said you never made the step.
In the last 30 years, Russia could've easily become a full member of the EU as did almost the entire Eastern Europe. Or if that was too much, then at least join the Schengen Area and European Free Trade Association and peacefully sell oil like Norwegians for good money and let pensioners spend that warming their bones on Mediterranean beaches instead of suffering through cold and dark winters while worrying if their grandchildren return from the war alive. Yesterday I saw statistics that adjusted wealth for the cost of living. In the span of a single lifetime, Norwegians have risen from poor farmers and fishers to the richest people on the planet. This could've been you. The suffering in the 1990s would've had a meaning then as a stepping stone towards much better future, as it's viewed in Central and Eastern Europe.
> It would be interesting to read Kozyrev directly if you've got a link, though.
He wrote a book on that: https://www.amazon.com/dp/0822945924
> Russia was widely open up to the world up and until 2014. It's more open to the world today that you care to admit.
According to V-Dem indicies, which attempt to quantify the rule of law, civil liberties, fairness and freedom of elections, wide representation of interests (instead of narrow groups), and equal access to resources across various groups within a society, Russia was already at the bottom of global ranking in 2013. The way Medvedev was used to keep the seat warm for Putin's another term and protesters were treated in 2011-2013 leaves no doubt how and by whom Russia was run. Certainly not by the people for the people under rules that are equal for all.
See the table on page 58 and 1973-2023 time series on page 60: https://www.v-dem.net/documents/43/v-dem_dr2024_lowres.pdf
> That's false, it was never open. Just take a look what Turkey is doing now. They've spent decades on reading EU's cucumber party regulations and now they've got semi-dictatorship and no longer admissible because they frankly gave up some time around 2015.
When it comes to Turkey, negotiations were always bound to become long and difficult due to unresolved issues around the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, the Kurdish-Turkish conflict, radical muslims in rural Turkey, and a long list of other difficult subjects. There is a fair bit more to chew on than only cucumbers.
Turkey's negotiations for joining the EU began in 2005. V-Dem shows Turkey gradually slipping into authoritarianism after 2008. Negotiations slowed down, stalled in 2016 after the coup attempt in Turkey, and were officially suspended in 2019. I think it is fair when the EU says that political instability and broken economy with 75% inflation rate makes Turkey a poor candidate at the moment. For Eastern Europe too, the main obstacles were economic and political stability criterias.
Last year, main Turkish opposition parties who represent 48% of the electorate reiterated intent to continue working towards European integration. Turkey and Europe have little to lose and a lot to win from seeing Turkey recover and become a stable and prosperous country. The same applies to the relationship with Russia, but with every passing day, you are walking away from Europe, into the loving embrace of the Chinese. When the US and Europe - each a far larger economy than the Russian - are worried about becoming too dependant on China, where does it leave you with barely a tenth of theirs?
I just don't see what essentially any Russian citizen can do about this. If you do not have free elections and no representation of interests, then by definition you cannot also fix that stuff in any fashion. "We think we can treat you poorly because your government also does" is an especially poor sell to Russians.
> negotiations were always bound to become long and difficult due to unresolved issues around the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, the Kurdish-Turkish conflict, radical muslims in rural Turkey, and a long list of other difficult subjects.
The point is, all of these issues also exist in Russia: Unresolved issues around Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as well as North Caucasus insurrections and its radical muslims. So if that didn't work for Turkey in 30 years, it will also not work for Russia. Case closed.
Getting into EU is comparatively easy for a small country, much harder for a larger one and for Russia (or Turkey) it is both impossible and infeasible. Real integration could only come in some other framework, which has never materialized, and as I can see nobody in EU even understands that it needed to be there. If you are an economic and defense bloc accepting new countries in, you should be very careful about countries you're not going to accept, as they rightfully see you as a threat.
https://avatars.dzeninfra.ru/get-zen_doc/4600043/pub_623f227...
The problem is that it does not concern Eastern Europeans in any way.