The first is replacing useMemo with some inline code that does the same thing, so, as far as I can tell that literally saves just one function call to useMemo but none of the actual work it does? How could that possibly have a performance impact?
The second is de-inlining (or whatever the proper word is) map(x => foo(x)) to save function definitions on each loop. I don't understand why a "React compiler" would be able to do this if a JS JIT compiler can't, what guarantee does it have that a JS compiler doesn't? This should be done by V8 or not at all.
Even though you have a whole paragraph on the cognitive load of an extra compilation step at the end of your post, which is bang on, IMO you don't even come CLOSE to explaining why this trade off is worth it.
I've been telling people for nine years that React is the best of the declarative DOM libraries because it has a simple line-for-line transform instead of a big complicated compilation step. It looks to me like we're just throwing that all in the bin for absolutely fuck all.