Long, long term this should work out in the favor of EVs. They have way less parts and are mechanically much simpler.
Right now, however, the market saturation, second hand parts market, repair shop density, etc means it's way more expensive to get an EV fixed.
I do wonder when this will flip. Maybe sometime around 2035?
It absolutely would not. "0 battery replacements" is the correct number in 9 years.
There are reports of people getting > 600,000 miles out of a Tesla battery. The only vehicle where you're likely to need regular battery replacements on is the Nissan Leaf or it's sister the Renault Zoe.
With modern vehicles, the battery can actually be expected to outlast the vehicle. Many EVs sold 10 years ago still have their original batteries. They are fine and really good value if you can get a second hand one.
Battery replacements have mostly proven a myth for EVs. Of course they sometimes happen, especially with older vehicles with primitive battery management (e.g. no cooling). But most EVs ever sold still drive around with their original batteries.
Modern battery chemistries are actually even more durable. 3000 charging cycles is pretty standard these days. With a 300 mile range, that's 900000 miles. Most ICE cars don't make it half way that before ending up in the scrap yard. And that's usually after years of expensive repairs, inefficiently running engines, and going through lots of replacement parts. 3000 cycles is just the threshold where you can reasonably expect the battery to still hold > 80% of it's charge. It's not like it will stop working. Maybe 60% is still good enough. Some battery chemistries do way better than 3000 cycles of course. There has been talk of million mile batteries for some years now.
You have to do regular service on an ICE car and repair or replace things like the timing belt and hoses etc.
Teslas have the cheapest 10 year maintenance costs according to Consumer Reports, beating out Toyota.
https://insideevs.com/news/717341/tesla-cheapest-repair-main...
It's a 6 years old car (and most likely 4 or 5 years old given the delivery stats)... there are camrys from the last century still on the road with 500k+ miles on them.
When a tesla passes 300k miles it's news worthy, not because of reliability, just because they haven't been around for long https://www.autoevolution.com/news/this-2018-tesla-model-3-p...
Plus no oil changes.
I wouldn't say this is a given. We've had a handful of small issues in 100k miles on our early-production 3 that I doubt a Camry would have had, but parts have been surprisingly cheap ($89 for a 12v battery direct from Tesla SC was cheaper than I could get one at Autozone, for example). I doubt I'll ever replace brakes, I'll never have to replace a timing belt, and battery pack coolant is supposedly lifetime unlike the coolant on the Camry.