It's Now Cheaper to Lease a Tesla Model 3 Than a Toyota Camry
insideevs.com
insideevs.com
Im actually a big truck person but I put my identity on pause (so to speak) because I loved the car so much.
Everyone who knows me can’t seem to process that I don’t have a truck.
(Also the test drive was very low key. Schedule online, Just greet the guy, and he sends you off on your own for a drive. No pressure when you come back either.)
It turns out being excited about driving is worth a whole lot to me. (It used to feel like a chore)
Also with the model y, It doesn’t look that high but it rides high enough to not bother me. I can get into the seat instead of get down into the seat.
And the hatchback and fold flat seats give a bit more cargo room than a sedan.
I've been in a Tesla and it is rather sterile, but fine. I can't say much more about them, honestly. Having one would be fine.
I loved the plush ride and miss the extra space (but not enough to get a Model Y). The seat height was nice, but I don't miss it. I definitely don't miss the super low end tech that most trucks come with. In retrospect, I feel bad about my carbon footprint. The truck chugged gas, which I spent roughly $200/mo on.
Like OP, I test drove a Model 3 via Turo completely on a whim (I wonder what Teslas are about...) and immediately financed one. I immediately financed the refreshed Model 3 when it released also. Absolutely incredible cars.
* Blocking other drivers' view
* Has a deadly amount of kinetic energy
* Takes up tremendous amount of parking space
* Has an outsize environmental footprintwhich of course is exactly the point for some people. "rolling coal" is admired by a significant minority of the truck culture.
Agree overall but electric cars/trucks are super heavy.
Are you suggesting a high percentage of truck owners actually do tow? I'd be surprised if it was even as high as 50% of US truck owners have towed anything in the last 10 years.
Go walk around in Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Phoenix, Albuquerque, Oklahoma City, Atlanta, St Lous, Denver, Kansas City, or loads of other cities like that. Prepare to have your eyes opened to excessive truck culture. Go see all the pavement princesses modified to excessive levels that make them impractical for towing or doing farm or construction work. Compare the trucks actually used for work compared to their pristine fancy paint jobs and spotless beds and geometry that would cause the suspension to snap if you tried pulling even a couple thousand pounds behind it.
According to some surveys something like 63% of truck drivers tow rarely to never.
https://www.axios.com/ford-pickup-trucks-history
Easily half of the trucks on the road today will never have towed anything in their lives. And chances are a lot will see payloads in their beds that would have comfortably fit in a minivan or hatchback.
I don't mind someone driving a big truck if its actually something they use as a truck. I'm contemplating getting a truck and camper trailer eventually myself. I get annoyed seeing all the wastefulness of all these trucks that aren't used as trucks. That wastefulness does affect me. It makes the air I breathe worse, it makes the streets my children play around less safe, it makes the parking situation worse, it makes traffic worse, it makes everything worse for zero damn reason other than "truck culture".
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/27/b6/3d/27b63db4bd163bc3b1f4...
You know its a work truck when they have painted light-up rims.
https://live.staticflickr.com/1972/45705140252_d81ef13ce7.jp...
I'm sure that finance worker in Downtown Dallas going back to their quarter acre lot in Frisco sure shovels a ton of manure. I bet that software developer in Austin going back to his apartment spends a lot of time towing a horse trailer.
Seriously man. Leave the rural bubble for a bit and see what its like in a Southern US city. See all the trucks owned by people parking in cramped downtown parking garages. See all the office parking garages filled to the brim with excessive trucks. Then tell me they're mostly used by people working in trades with a straight face.
I feel you assume too much about truck owners and apply your experiences in rural Michigan to all other truck owners. You think people like my examples of Frisco office workers having trucks are rare? You ever spend time in Frisco TX? Think they're all farmers on their zero lot line McMansions? Yet somehow practically every home has a truck out front, often multiple. That's just one town in the metroplex. And that's just the metroplex. We haven't even begun talking about Houston or San Antonio or Austin or even left Texas.
Go take a look around Charles Schab's campus in Westlake. You'll find the parking there loaded with tons of big pickup trucks. How many farmers do you think Charles Schwab hires? Do the same with JPMorgan's new offices in Plano. I guess nearly a third of their workforce are farmers or plumbers or painters or something.
> A SUV isn't much better for the environment and safety than a truck btw.
Agreed. Which is why my midsize SUV stays in the driveway unless I actually need the space or towing while my family normally takes the much smaller other car that fits us just right. I fully agree people also often oversize their car purchase with massive SUVs that don't really do much more than what a midsize sedan could do with their usage.
But there are tons of people out there who are entirely office workers living in a suburban home or apartment who don't have boats or campers or whatever and own one or more trucks. Tons of them. You really notice the difference driving around in NY or Michigan or Illinois or whatever and then go to Texas or New Mexico or Georgia or similar. I just did a road trip from Texas to Montreal, so I got a decent snapshot of what highway populations look like across a lot of North America.
How about all the spotless lifted pickup trucks in the parking garage in my suburban office parking garage owned by insurance salesmen and software developers? Think they go to truck stops and 24hr diners often? None of them are delivering anything to anyone's homes other than groceries from Whole Foods to their own suburban home.
Incredible to me so many people think the majority of truck owners work on a farm or a trade. Just look around. Take a peek in an office parking garage in Kansas City. Think all those people working in some healthcare insurance office are farmers or something?
Go someplace other than that 24hr diner or farmer supply store and notice all the trucks that obviously aren't work trucks.
Are you sure? Maybe you live in the south, which from my last visit was "lifted truck land"? I'm from a rural area that gets snow and I'd say the breakdown of insecurity vs usefulness is the exact opposite. No serious person lives in this area without a truck, or SUV capable of getting them around in the winter time and shlepping stuff to their home/farm/ranch (there's also a culture of self reliance). We also don't see lifted "shiny" trucks. Lifted? Sure. Shiny? That's for people "from away".
Ah yes, because that's where 99% of truck owners in the US live.
Are you suggesting there's more truck owners in your rural area of Michigan than Dallas?
We even took the car home and ensured it could park in our garage :)
I guess the main truck things I liked:
I like feeling more like sitting in a regular chair. Low Cars feel like sleds to me.
I like the high ground clearance so I don’t worry about curbs and can park off-road if needed.
It’s nice to be able to throw things in the back. Kayaks, bikes, furniture.
They also hold their value really well.
And prior to 2020 trucks were pretty cheap compared to equivalent SUVS. I got a new 2017 tundra for around 30K.
Perhaps they do not want to put it in the contract now because they have some increasingly desperate robotaxi dreams, but it is clear to me that the robotaxi aint happening with the current hardware, and in a couple of years even elon will have to admit that.
Doesn’t this imply even-faster falling prices for ICE vehicles? We’re nowhere close to the Norwegian death spiral [1], but at 7.3% of sales growing at 2.6 percentage points YoY from a 1% base [2] we’re 5 years from their 20% fleet penetration rate [3], which implies a lot of gas cars being sold today will be scrapped versus resold. (I own a gas car. I expect to drive it until write off / they start penalty taxing gas.)
[1] https://electrek.co/2023/10/20/cratering-motor-fuel-sales-in...
[2] https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and...
[3] https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/evs-now-make-20-norwa...
I think most EVs are more likely to be totaled by a crash than have their batteries replaced due to wear or defect.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1379452303317610497.html
"The Robotaxi Repo Theory: Tesla overstated S/X sales in 2018 using new lease accounting methods, however this led to large 1Q19 writeoff. To avoid further writeoffs, TSLA declares cars appreciating assets in 2Q19, allowing collateralized borrowing to be considered sales."
They are not even in the same class of vehicles, model 3 is closer to a Toyota Corolla than a Camry.
When purchasing, the restyled mid-size Camry hybrid is still more affordable than the Model 3, with a base MSRP of $29,804, whereas the Tesla’s entry-level sedan retails for $40,380 (including destination) and doesn’t qualify for the $7,500 federal tax credit.
This leasing thing is either accounting acrobatics or high residual value or both.
But it's Tesla taking the risk with that high residual, not you.
(this weirdness is due to the fact you don't get the $7500 if buying this particular Model 3)
What about CarPlay/Android Auto are you concerned about losing? I'm not trying to convince you that you don't need it, I just honestly don't know what I'm missing.
Most people consider their phone their digital life, so having the car entertainment system get out of your way and just integrate the car with the phone seems more natural.
- If you don't have wireless CarPlay, you need to plug your phone in. CarPlay is super finicky about cables.
- If you do, you're at the mercy of the head unit not crapping out on you
- I've had CarPlay fail to update my GPS location multiple times, where unplugging and plugging back in is the only solution.
With the gas savings we're paying about $200/month for our Tesla 3. Our only regret was not leasing the Polestar 2 instead.
The Prius gets ~60mpg whereas the Lexus gets ~42mpg, so it seems like it would pay for itself a bit more over time if you drove it into the ground, but at that price, it makes no sense to stick with the lower build quality cars.
Which one?
I'm not discussing EV vs. ICE in general, but rather comparing the Camry to Tesla. I believe that maintenance will be cheaper for the Camry, although this will depend on many factors, and I could even be wrong. However, maintenance for Tesla wheels and tires is far more expensive than for those of a Camry. Additionally, the cost of replacing a Tesla battery is more expensive than the combined cost of a Camry's engine and transmission, which is the primary argument against ICE cars. I have never heard of anyone complaining about these issues with a Camry before let alone replacing them.
That’s for maintenance-wise, other categories also favor the Camry, such as reliability in extreme cold conditions, the availability of parts, and auto shops for repairs, as well as significantly better privacy, knowing that no Tesla employee is spying on my home while reviewing the car's cameras (1).
Personally, I would choose the Camry over a Tesla any day. However, this would not be the case against other cars, such as BMW, where the maintenance costs are far higher. .
(1) https://www.reuters.com/technology/tesla-workers-shared-sens...
I will give you that parts-availability for EVs are an issue (esp. Teslas = single supplier). Insurance replacement cost and coverage is also probably higher for a higher-end EV.
The cost of gas vs. charging can be significant though.
> When purchasing, the restyled mid-size Camry hybrid is still more affordable than the Model 3, with a base MSRP of $29,804, whereas the Tesla’s entry-level sedan retails for $40,380 (including destination) and doesn’t qualify for the $7,500 federal tax credit.
So as a United States taxpayer I say to Tesla Model 3 owners: You're welcome.
The main difference is that the subsidies and expenditures on gas are given to oil companies while those for electric cars are given directly to the consumer.
All that being said, I find these comparisons silly. Tesla is riding the hype machine, and discounting products like crazy to grab market share. Toyota is stable, mature and playing an entirely different strategy.
If what you're claiming were true you'd expect Tesla to be selling at close to a loss in order to gain market share, but they are selling their product at a pretty comfortable profit.
>Wall Street expects automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits to be 15.2%, according to 20 analysts polled by Visible Alpha, down from 19% a year earlier and the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2017. *https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-...
Certainly a subsidy makes a product more affordable and hence increases demand for that product, but a subsidy can never allow a manufacturer to charge more for a product than they otherwise would charge. A manufacturer will always charge the price that maximizes their profits and that price doesn't change because of a subsidy.
2022 was supply constrained. 2024 is not.
...right.
What is the impact on prices of Teslas when there are 100% tariffs and import bans on Chinese EVs? Do you think those tariffs makes Tesla prices go up or down?
Why do retailers offer coupons? How do they set their prices when coupons are "always available"?
I think you can't give me an consistent explanation for all of these. I can. Once you figure out if something is actually a tax or a subsidy, taxes make prices go up, and subsidies make prices go down. In my opinion, the surprising thing here is that because of the way it is implemented, such as the existence of vehicle tariffs on other EVs, limited number of vehicles it benefits, their price caps, and the conditions on local manufacturing, the federal EV tax credit is functionally an ordinary tax, and prices on all EVs - the cars that qualify for the benefit and those that do not - have risen. It is really a tax in disguise, on other vehicles, that transfers US tax dollars to US-centered auto manufacturers. And honestly why does that surprise you? Did you buy an overpriced Tesla or something?
It would certainly make the price of a Tesla go up.
>Why do retailers offer coupons?
The decrease in price results in an increase in demand for the product. This is very beneficial for manufacturers who need to keep the rate of production consistent all year long while demand for their product may fluctuate.
> How do they set their prices when coupons are "always available"?
The increase in demand from the decrease in price due to the coupon or subsidy balances out, so the price without the coupon/subsidy remains the same. The effect of the coupon/subsidy is strictly to increase the demand, it doesn't allow the manufacturer to charge a higher sticker price.
>and prices on all EVs - the cars that qualify for the benefit and those that do not - have risen
Except there's a way to test for this and it isn't consistent with your expectation. Tesla along with pretty much all car manufacturers charge the same amount for an EV in places that offer an incentive such as California versus places that don't, such as Texas. Based on your logic a Tesla should be more expensive in California, which offers a $7500 credit compared to Texas. But that's not the case.
Did you do your research? Are you aware that the incentive in California has been suspended for a while now?
Regarding the coupon question... I'm sure you've heard of the phenomenon of raising a price, then offering a coupon. It's not just some brittle hallucination. It's just to say that it isn't so black and white. A coupon isn't a tax or a subsidy, it's a marketing gimmick.
Does any of this matter? If the BYD were sold in America for $10,000, is there any doubt that prices on other EVs would go down, beneficial for all Americans, including the ones affected by layoffs due to high interest rates responding to inflation... even if nobody bought the BYD?
Cost. If you look at some recent changes - like taking out the signal stalks - it reeks of cost optimization. A heads up display in addition to the big iPad would cost more to manufacture.
Long, long term this should work out in the favor of EVs. They have way less parts and are mechanically much simpler.
Right now, however, the market saturation, second hand parts market, repair shop density, etc means it's way more expensive to get an EV fixed.
I do wonder when this will flip. Maybe sometime around 2035?
With modern vehicles, the battery can actually be expected to outlast the vehicle. Many EVs sold 10 years ago still have their original batteries. They are fine and really good value if you can get a second hand one.
Battery replacements have mostly proven a myth for EVs. Of course they sometimes happen, especially with older vehicles with primitive battery management (e.g. no cooling). But most EVs ever sold still drive around with their original batteries.
Modern battery chemistries are actually even more durable. 3000 charging cycles is pretty standard these days. With a 300 mile range, that's 900000 miles. Most ICE cars don't make it half way that before ending up in the scrap yard. And that's usually after years of expensive repairs, inefficiently running engines, and going through lots of replacement parts. 3000 cycles is just the threshold where you can reasonably expect the battery to still hold > 80% of it's charge. It's not like it will stop working. Maybe 60% is still good enough. Some battery chemistries do way better than 3000 cycles of course. There has been talk of million mile batteries for some years now.
It absolutely would not. "0 battery replacements" is the correct number in 9 years.
There are reports of people getting > 600,000 miles out of a Tesla battery. The only vehicle where you're likely to need regular battery replacements on is the Nissan Leaf or it's sister the Renault Zoe.
You have to do regular service on an ICE car and repair or replace things like the timing belt and hoses etc.
Teslas have the cheapest 10 year maintenance costs according to Consumer Reports, beating out Toyota.
https://insideevs.com/news/717341/tesla-cheapest-repair-main...
It's a 6 years old car (and most likely 4 or 5 years old given the delivery stats)... there are camrys from the last century still on the road with 500k+ miles on them.
When a tesla passes 300k miles it's news worthy, not because of reliability, just because they haven't been around for long https://www.autoevolution.com/news/this-2018-tesla-model-3-p...
Plus no oil changes.
I wouldn't say this is a given. We've had a handful of small issues in 100k miles on our early-production 3 that I doubt a Camry would have had, but parts have been surprisingly cheap ($89 for a 12v battery direct from Tesla SC was cheaper than I could get one at Autozone, for example). I doubt I'll ever replace brakes, I'll never have to replace a timing belt, and battery pack coolant is supposedly lifetime unlike the coolant on the Camry.
What do you mean? I had a Honda and it didn't quite get to 2500 miles per tank, so I don't know how much experience they have doing that.
Toyota does make a plug-in Prius now
I mean if we're just going to live in fantasy world why have a tank that needs to be refilled at all? Just have infinite energy in the car.
China's near defacto monopoly on lithium batteries is also very concerning. Unfortunately we cannot eliminate it from our lives due to its' ubiquity and cost, but I'd rather not buy an electric car that supports this industry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9jscWk2DMg is a good watch on this topic.
You're throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
- I've had an electric car for 5 years now. My car has been significantly less maintenance than any I've owned. How is that throwing it away in a landfill? If you're concerned about waste, think about the amount of C02 emitted by a single gas car during the 100,000 miles I've driven it already.
- The US and Canada already has a nascent lithium mining and exploration industry, a few sites of which are already open or scheduled to soon, such as in Thacker Pass, Nevada or in Quebec. It's not our fault that a huge portion of the US government continues to ignore how valuable rare earth mining is to the next century ~ (Add other things like nuclear to the list too)
https://www.toyota.com/camry/features/mpg_other_price/2555/2...