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And even if the alliance really were just defensive, you realize that this means that all it takes to use it against someone is a successful false flag attack?
> successful false flag attack
Classic Russian. “AKSHUALLY IT’S PROVOKASHION”
Also it seems that NATO rebuffed Russia's attempt to join it. With Russia in NATO would have been the strongest defense alliance. I wonder why they wanted to keep Russians as perpetual enemies!
If you really did go back 200 years before NATO, you might be surprised to learn about the conflict ridden European history. The French were prolific invaders, for example. They still run colonies in far away places.
Excellent question. Let's ask the person who justified Russia's invasion by saying that NATO contravened its non-expansion guarantee to the Soviet Union.
Russia is controlled by people with the same worldview as the people who controlled the Soviet Union. So in a sense, yes.
That worldview to be clear is "Russia is destined to be great, but the entire world is conspiring to bring it down". Stalin had been using the phrase "capitalist encirclement" since some point in the 20s. Nowadays it's "NATO encroachment". It's not an argument to be engaged in good faith by anyone who's paying attention.
The "Soviet Union" was a tool invented by Stalin to bring under his control the people that he couldn't assimilate into Russia directly. Yes, they're the same thing.
Stalin was born in Georgia, hid his accent, had the state photographers airbrush his Georgian features (arched nose, chin, and brow) to look more Russian, personally ensured that Georgia was absorbed into Russia, and made Russian the only allowed language in Georgia.
So what? What's your point? You're just trying to distract from the point that matters, which is that the people currently in power in Russia had exactly the same worldview as the people in power in the Soviet Union, which is that "Russia is destined to be great, but the rest of the world is conspiring to bring it down". This applies to Putin, Stalin, and anyone who has any power in Russia.
"but but but stalin was georgian". Fucking ignoramus.
Yes.
Nato doesn't "expand." Countries join it for protection from predatory nations like Russia. Russia is NATO's greatest salesperson. Seriously.
> Ukraine gave up their nukes and signed the Budapest memorandum with Russia
For a moment, let's take your highly simplistic statement at face value. USSR gave up East Germany and voluntarily dissolved itself on the agreement that NATO won't expand east of Germany and Russia will be "admitted" into the West. What do we do about that now?
What agreement? Even Gorbachev (last leader of USSR) confirmed that there was no such agreement.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/did-nato-promise-not-to-e...
And it did not voluntarily dissolved itself, it fell apart. Like when your plate voluntarily dissolves itself when you drop it on the floor.
"Myth," Gorbachev said. "Had we had an agreement, we would've written it down," he added: https://x.com/splendid_pete/status/1650735533826375680
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2023-06-15/russia...
NATO doesn't threaten non-expansionist powers as a defensive treaty. Read the treaty. Being "admitted" into the west is easy--don't invade other countries, send little green men army invasions or make bellicose nuclear threats, and focus on business-first and the red carpet rolls itself out.
At the end of the day American hegemony has essentially produced the most peaceful, prosperous period ever and America is pretty open to any country joining this hegemony as long as you play by its basic rules.
This does not mean giving up your culture. American hegemony is able to allow such disparate economies and societies as Saudi Arabia and Norway to operate in fairly peaceful markets.
At the end of the day, it is in the best interest of everyone to basically do what America says.
Unlike previous regimes, America has not completely run roughshod over anyone other than people that were already doing extremely questionable things. And it doesn't matter because if your leaders kowtow enough to American demands, you can be pretty sure we will leave you alone.
So basically, Russia is going to lose and will make a fool of themselves as they already have, and America will come out of this relatively unscathed. At the end of the day, America has no real competition. The Pax Americana is substantively different than Pax Brittanica and Pax Romana, in that Americas is worldwide and there is no country able to threaten America in any meaningful way. We are blessed to be surrounded by two very friendly countries that play well with us.
Moreover all the countries that might threaten us are literally dying out.
While the US operates at an arms length from KSA with none of the usual theatrics about human rights violations, LGBTQ rights, etc, it has not adopted the same approach to China, Russia, Iran, Cuba, etc. It aggressively meddles in them in cultural and political spheres, not allowing such disparate actors to operate in the same peaceful markets. The recent animosity towards China is mind boggling.
I remember Wolfowitz’s PNAC and full spectrum domination from 2001. The US seem to have lost plenty of its power projection since then. But for its vassal states, most countries do not seem to care about its sanctions on Russia.
People don’t mind a just thug keeping peace and offering protection for a reasonable sum though. The US did that role well.
As I said... If the leaders of those countries simply kowtowed to american demands, you bet they would. In particula,
China -- institute free market reforms; officially announce the truth, which is that they're not communist (they haven't been for years).
Russia -- not have Putin
Iran -- not have the Ayatollah
Cuba -- not be communist
At the end of the day it is very easy to acquiesce to American demands. You simply have to not try to undo a coup they did and then never ever ever say you're communist. You can go ahead and be a dictator, but America has decided communism bad, so just don't go there and you will be okay with the US. Then let the US operate military bases on your country's soil, and voila, you will be America's friend forever. Recall that Pakistan is still an ally of the United States despite harboring its most wanted terrorist.
in other words, there are very clear paths for all these countries to not feel the full force of American sanctions. And this is what I mean by the US doesn't really care. Even with China, you can say all you want about it, but America's embrace of China has made it what it is today, despite the cold tensions.
In US, yes. In the rest of the world, no.
Are there some rogue states that do not play well with American hegemony? Yes
But these states can easily make good by simply following America's terms. There are few grudges being held. No one is going to kill all their men and enslave their women. American demands are not so gruesome. They're relatively mild and would likely improve the standard of living of everyone there. I don't make this claim vacuously. Broadly speaking, everywhere that has adopted American hegemony has done incredibly well for themselves and their populace. Rationally speaking, there's no reason not to.
Because Europe was (maybe still is) a treat economicaly for the US economy, especially automotive sector. And the EU was trying to become also a military aliance which will be a treat to NATO, if they separate. At the moment the US is buying a lot of politicians in EU (vdL for example) but this won't last forever.
EU people are quite reasonable, they just don't quite like being bossed around.
The Germans needed North Stream blown up and Ukraine invaded in order to understand that they shouldn't have relied on Russian gas to grow their economy. Some of Germans I've spoken to still don't get it as of today, regardless how frank the current and former US administrations were regarding this and contributions to NATO. Somehow they fail to comprehend that the US gave them protection during the Cold War and it's also US brokered agreements that led to the reunification of Germany on 15 March 1991.
The French being French like stuff done their way and knew they can't fully rely on the US since the '50s. But at least they got their shit together with Germany and are building a new tank platform, the MGCS. Some of the German aerospace industry was already consolidated into Airbus Helicopters and they've also jointly developed the Eurofighter platform with the UK, Spain and Italy.
Norway, Denmark, The Nederlands, Belgium, Poland, Romania, Greece and Turkey are buying US weapons systems, no surprises there.
This is like an abusive husband who tells the wife how the beatings are for her owm good!
(For the record, ponchiki taste way better than doughnuts, at least I'll give the Russians that)
The critical interest of the US is in avoiding direct war of the US with Russia when it invades Poland or Estonia. Russia _will_ invade a NATO country if it conquers Ukraine, and the US will be obliged to defend it. So if the voluntary support of Ukraine allows to avoid that scenario today, it obviously is critically interesting.
> Why they are worth pursuing at the risk of a/ destruction of European economies b/ alienating China,
Because it is much better to risk the destruction of European economy (btw, how exactly?) or alienate China than risk sleepwalking into a potentially civilization-ending NATO-Russia war.
Europe also remembers how appeasement went for Europeans before wwii when another country though it would be cool to take over some neighbors.
I think you’ve advocating for Neville chamberlain’s appeasement policy.
That is a very short-term and one sided view of the conflict that has been on since at least 2014. BTW, we had peace agreements guaranteed by France and Germany before Russia invaded Ukraine.
It is naive to think Ukraine can be "taken over". The objective of the military operation is to prevent Ukraine from joining the NATO and US building nuclear capable bases right on Russia's border.
And nuclear capable bases? Haha As if Russia, China, the USA would have a problem launching ICBMs targeting anywhere. Not a real concern.
Ukraine is just a territorial land grab by Putin pining for an empire.
That's why we're supporting Ukraine and sanctioning The Russia (well, the sanctions could be even harsher, but it is what it is).