> And global demand for oil is going up up up
That's a (very) short term effect that you might be overestimating. The broad consensus seems to be that we reach peak oil before 2030. I.e. within the next five years. When I say broad consensus, I mean IEA (funded largely by oil producing nations) and similar agencies. Given their background, the IEA is actually somewhat conservative with their outlook usually. 2026-2030 seems to be the bandwidth of estimations here. I don't think it matters that much. The point is that in a few years, we should see oil production start to trend down year on year; for the first time pretty much.
Once electrical cars get cheap enough (i.e. right now thanks to BYD producing sub 10K$ cars suitable for the masses), things should pick up and go rapidly. There's a bit of lag here because of import tariffs, the fact that it takes time to ramp up production capacity, politics, and a few other factors. But millions of vehicles per year now with average sales prices projected to continue to drop year on year for the foreseeable future.
Developing nations are actually embracing renewables and batteries in a hurry. A lot of those vehicles aren't the big SUVs and cars we use in the west but simple electric scooters, mopeds, and bicycles. Those are being produced by the millions already and extremely popular across India, Asia, etc. The mass adoption of electric bikes and mopeds has already had a measurable impact on petrol demand. Cheap solar and battery operated vehicles deliver economical benefits everywhere, not just in rich parts of the world.
I actually expect oil prices and petrol prices to go up rather than down as that's an obvious way for oil companies to keep their profits up when they are selling less. Sell less for more, basically. The net effect that could have is speeding up the whole transition. Oil producers tightly control production levels to keep the prices where they want them to be. The word oligarchy comes from their tendency to do that.
As for Russian oil and gas. Their exports in barrels and tons of gas are way lower than pre war levels and unlikely to get back to those levels in the near future as they simply lack the infrastructure. China and India consume some but they don't seem in a hurry to become dependent on them. Russia is basically forced to sell at a discount right now. And the Ukranians have been hitting their oil infrastructure pretty hard too in recent months which isn't helping the Russians.