Presumably then you also have to factor in the cost of fines weighted by the chance of getting caught?
Usually this is near-impossible to enforce, but attempts to organise/aggregate these (which I initially thought this site was going to attempt) do raise your odds.
Furthermore, the medium in question (passenger flight) places practical limits on volume, and raises likelihoods for getting caught. E.g. a large suitcase full of cigarettes is much riskier through an airport, than the same amount of cigarettes tucked away among a lot of other stuff in the back of a 1 ton truck going over the border.